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Why Josh Allen should go under his yardage and over his TD total in 2020

Josh Allen improved in 2019, but his passing statistics were still below average. Will he up those numbers this season? We break down his 2020 over/under.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills reacts after his 16-yard touchdown reception against the Houston Texans during the first quarter of the AFC Wild Card Playoff game at NRG Stadium on January 04, 2020 in Houston, Texas. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Josh Allen improved in his second season, as he upped his completion rate and lowered his interception rate while increasing his passing yardage per game, but he still managed just 193.1 passing yards per game as he finished with 3,089. The team did add a strong receiver to the mix when they traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason.

As the 2020 NFL Draft nears, DraftKings Sportsbook has given us over/under totals on passing, receiving and rushing yards for individual players. Allen’s over/under for passing yards in 2020 is set at 3300.5 and passing touchdowns at 21.5.

Prediction: Under 3300.5 yards & 21.5 TDs

2020 is a big season for Allen, as he’s coming into his third year after taking a step forward in 2019, but not a big enough step to say he’s a quarterback we can trust quite yet. It would be nice to see him get his completion percentage over 60 percent and his adjusted yards per attempt over 7.

The addition of Stefon Diggs is a big piece for Allen, and should help him take another step, but his passing stats could still be limited, even if his efficiency goes up, as the Bills have a strong defense and want to run the ball when they can. Allen had 421 passing attempts while the team had 465 rushing attempts.

The Bills also had one of the easier schedules in 2019 while they should see an increase in competition in 2020, as they take on the AFC and NFC West, you know, the divisions that brought you your two Super Bowl contenders last season.

The Bills should be a better overall team in 2020 and Allen should be at least slightly more efficient, so getting close to his over-under of 3300.5 yards is doable, but if things go like the Bills want, he still won’t be a quarterback who throws many passes when ahead. With that in mind, I still like the under for yardage, but the over for touchdowns.

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