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Why Patrick Mahomes will top his yardage and TD total in 2020

Patrick Mahomes had a strong 2019 but suffered injuries that pushed his statistics down. Can he stay healthy and move back to the top of the statistical heap? We break down his 2020 over/under.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium on February 02, 2020 in Miami, Florida. Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

Patrick Mahomes just won the Super Bowl but more importantly, he didn’t hit the over on his season long totals in 2019 due to injury. When Mahomes was healthy, he very much looked like the 5,000 yard, 50 touchdown passer from 2018 though. Getting injured during a game and playing through an ankle injury lowered his passing yards per game but his completion percentage and adjusted yards per attempt stayed high and on pace with his huge debut season.

As the 2020 NFL Draft nears, DraftKings Sportsbook has given us over/under totals on passing, receiving and rushing yards for individual players. Mahomes’ over/under for receiving yards in 2020 is set at 4550.5 and passing TDs at 35.5.

Prediction: Over 4550.5 yards, Over 35.5 TDs

Predicting Mahomes’ statistics is actually a little easier after we got to see him play hurt coming off an outlier type of season in 2018. We knew he wouldn’t top those numbers, but it was good to see what his ceiling and floor look like. His floor is him playing through injury. We saw it with his ankle early and then after returning from his dislocated knee cap, he didn’t look quite right. Mahomes’ ability is tied to his legs like most quarterbacks, but Mahomes more than most, as he does much of his best work after escaping pressure.

When projecting Kansas City’s offense with Mahomes, it appears his health will be the biggest roadblock to him, as he has shown no signs of slowing down when healthy. He also shouldn’t see any changes offensively, as they just won the Super Bowl without a strong rushing attack and they’ve kept the core of their offense together for 2020.

If we look at 2019 games in which Mahomes was fully healthy, or seemingly so, he easily beats his 2020 totals for yards and touchdowns. Before his injury in Week 7, he was on pace for 5,611 yards and 37 touchdowns. For this wager, we are mostly betting on if Mahomes stays healthy along with some key offensive pieces for Kansas City.

The good news is that the Chiefs have one of the better offensive lines in the game and they gave up the third-fewest sacks in the league. We can also look at how the rules protect quarterbacks like never before and I think the odds favor a healthy season and overs on yards and touchdowns for the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

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