Breaking down early Patriots point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the New England Patriots will open the post-Tom Brady era with a divisional home game against the Dolphins. The Patriots are currently slight favorites to win the AFC East at +125 to the Bills +145. New England’s preseason win total is installed at 9 with -110 odds on both the over and under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Patriots, they’ve unveiled all but their Week 17 line.

Point spreads

Week 1: vs. Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
Week 2: at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Week 3: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Week 4: at Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5)
Week 5: vs. Denver Broncos (-5)
Week 7: vs. San Francisco 49ers (+1)
Week 8: at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)
Week 9: at New York Jets (-2.5)
Week 10: vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3)
Week 11: at Houston Texans (+1)
Week 12: vs. Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Week 13: at Los Angeles Chargers (+1)
Week 14: at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
Week 15: at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Week 16: vs. Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Most likely cover

Bill Belichick gives the Patriots seven games in which they are favored this season, despite Jarrett Stidham currently in line to be starting quarterback after Tom Brady moved on to Tampa Bay. It makes sense, as Belichick got an 11-5 record out of Matt Cassel when Brady went down in the first quarter of 2008. But, Stidham also doesn’t have Randy Moss. This is a situation that will be tough for betters, as Belichick’s presence gives the team better odds despite having an inexperienced quarterback. Belichick’s coaching should show up early in the season, especially against a team like the Dolphins, who will likely have Tua Tagovailoa and a host of draft picks playing. Despite the -6.5 line, I’d still want Belichick’s defense in that matchup.

Most likely fail to cover

Against lesser competition, Belichick’s coaching should keep his team in most games, but heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs is a different story. No defense can stop Patrick Mahomes with consistency and with Stidham likely needing to put up big points to hang in the game, I see a blowout on the horizon. The -6.5 Chiefs line isn’t high enough here, as the team will look to bury the patriots after losing in the AFC Championship to them two seasons ago.

Line most likely to change

If the Patriots get off to a poor start, showing us that Belichick cant hold the team together by himself, their lines will really start to widen in favor of their opponent’s. Playing the Ravens at home in Week 10 could easily go from +3 underdogs to over a touchdown underdogs after the Ravens improved their defense and offense this offseason and the Patriots did not.

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