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Breaking down early Raiders point spreads

The Raiders full schedule is out for the 2020 season. DraftKings Sportsbook has released point spreads for Week 1 and beyond. We break down the early odds.

Quarterback Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders walks on the field against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on December 29, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Raiders 16-15. Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Las Vegas Raiders will open on the road in their first season outside of California, facing the new-look Panthers. The Raiders enter the season at +1000 to win the AFC West, the longest odds in the division. Their preseason win total is installed at 7 with the over paying -121 and the under paying +100.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Raiders, we get four additional lines, including road games against the Patriots and Jets, and a home game against Philip Rivers and the Colts.

Point spreads

Week 1: @ Panthers (-1)
Week 3: @ Patriots (+5.5)
Week 10: vs. Broncos (-2)
Week 13: @ Jets (+1.5)
Week 14: vs. Colts (+1)

Most likely cover

The Raiders will be in a new stadium but they do have a core that played well enough together last season to at least be in the playoff picture with more than half the season remaining. Derek Carr’s record at home is 23-22 while on the road it is 15-32. QB wins isn’t a good stat usually, but there’s no doubt that Carr and company have played much better at home. Maybe Carr does better on the road if there are no fans, but for the time being, I’d rather bet on him at home and the only two home games with lines are the Broncos and Colts. Both of those games are in the second half of the season, so maybe some fans will be let into the stadium by then, which would help. I’m fairly bullish on the Colts this season while the Broncos should be improved, but also are a very young team offensively. The Raiders beat them by eight points in Oakland last season and I expect a similar outcome this year in Vegas.

Most likely fail to cover

The Raiders have some winnable games in our small sample of odds here, giving them a real shot in each one. Playing in New England looks like a scary proposition, but I’m not giving Jarrett Stidham 5.5 points until I see him put points on the board and if there are no fans at the game or they’re playing in a Florida high school, I’ll lean into the Raiders and Derek Carr.

Line most likely to change

The Colts are set up to be an efficient offense with Philip Rivers at the helm. Rivers gets an upgrade in offensive line and a great coach in Frank Reich. I initially had this line as the one for the Raiders to fail to cover, and there’s a good chance that this line ends up moving even more in the Colts favor by Week 14.

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