The Bundesliga returns this weekend, and when TSG 1899 Hoffenheim takes on Hertha Berlin, it will be one team trying to reach the Europa League against one trying to continue to stay clear of relegation.
Augsburg are 14th in the Bundesliga table, five points clear of the potential drop zone. They’ve scored 36 goals but conceded 52 this season, and a led by Florian Niederlechner with 11 tallies. They’ve struggled on the road this, picking up just nine points in eight matches, and have been a bit unlucky via expected goals where they’re behind eight and not 16. Discipline is not a strength however, with 50 yellow cards and two reds through 25 matches this season. The break in the schedule came at a good time however, as they had only won four points from their last nine Bundesliga matches.
Wolfsburg are just one spot out of next year’s Europa League for now, with 36 points and one behind Schalke with 37. Dutchman Wout Weghorst has 11 goals to lead the club, who are actually ahead of all their rivals for the last European spot on goal difference. There’s almost no homefield advantage for them, as they’ve picked up just as many points on the road despite playing one more match at home. And they had found points in eight of their last nine matches before the league came to a halt.
Here are the money lines and betting splits for Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg on Saturday, May 16th.
+225 7% of handle, 11% of bets
+240 14% of handle, 17% of bets
+118 79% of handle, 71% of bets
Prop we like
Wolfsburg is getting most of the money, and we think that’s the right play. But they’re also stout defensively having conceded just 30 times all season, the least of any club outside the top three. We think they hold here as well and will go under on Augsburg total goals of 0.5 for +195, hoping Die Wölfe can keep a clean sheet on their return.
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