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Best Bundesliga bets for Sunday include all the road teams — Mainz, Leverkusen, and Bayern

The first day of “ghost games” in Europe showed home field isn’t worth what it is when the stands are full

Robert Lewandowski of FC Bayern Muenchen runs during a training session at Saebener Strasse training ground on April 21, 2020 in Munich, Germany. Photo by M. Donato/FC Bayern via Getty Images

The first day of the Bundesliga showed the league was ready to play the high-scoring, engaging football the league is know for under normal circumstances. Dortmund will not let the trophy go without a fight, Hertha put any discussion of their relegation to rest early, and Leipzig might have played themselves out of the title race on their own pitch. And if they continue defending as they did yesterday, Leipzig might have to worry more about qualifying for the Champions League as well.

When the geisterspiele return today, we’ll find some wagers available with some value. Let’s take a look at some best bets from today’s action in Round 26 of the Bundesliga.

Mainz 05: +0.75 goals -148 (Asian Handicap)

If you don’t know what an Asian Handicap is, we’ve got a primer for you. But what we learned yesterday is that home pitch advantage really isn’t much without fans in the stands. The road teams picked up 11 points in six matches yesterday, including Hertha looking elite and Freiburg ending RB’s title chances. We’ll be with the road teams today, and we think Mainz can pick up at least a point here today. That would scoop this bet, but we’ll get a rebate if they lose by just one goal.

Bayer Leverkusen: -1.25 goals +160 (Asian Handicap)

The other thing we learned yesterday is that the teams that were in form before the break stayed in form, and those that were playing poorly continued their bad run. No one was playing worse before the break than Werder Bremen (one point from 15), and no one was playing better than Die Werkself (13 points from 15). We’ll take Leverkusen on the road to keep Bremen in the relegation zone, while getting one step closer to the Champions League as with a win they’ll be only a point off Leipzig for the biggest payday in sports.

Bayern Munich: -2 -117

It’s just how many goals do you want to give or get here, as Der FCB is -625 on the money line against a Union Berlin side that should avoid relegation eventually, but isn’t going anywhere but the middle of the table. Munich makes it three straight road teams we’re taking, and we’ll lay a pair here and hope Robert Lewandowski plays enough that he’s not pulled before three are in the net.

The five substitutions allowed during the “ghost games” means benches matter more, which of course favors what might be the deepest non-Spanish club in Europe. With the road not mattering, we apologize to the underdogs we love, but it’s time to eat some chalk until the bookmakers figure out what post-Covid-19 spreads should be.

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