Breaking down early Falcons point spreads

The NFL released the 2020 schedule and the Atlanta Falcons open at home when they face Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks at home. The Falcons are +1000 to win the NFC South, sitting ahead of the last place Panther, who are +2000 while the Bucs and Saints are almost even at +105 and +110. Atlanta’s preseason win total is installed at 7 with -134 odds on the over and +110 odds on the under.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted all the Week 1 point spreads the evening of the schedule release, and they have since added nearly 100 additional games throughout the season. DK does big business in New Jersey and Colorado, so it is no surprise they have all 16 lines for the Giants, Jets, Eagles, and Broncos. However, they have multiple lines for other teams as well. For the Falcons, we get just one additional line, giving us two at home against the Seahawks and Broncos. We have gone ahead and projected spreads for some of their higher profile games as well.

Point spreads

Week 1: vs. Seattle (+1)
Week 9: vs. Broncos (-3)

Projected point spreads

The Falcons have taken a hit in the odds this season after winning just seven games last year, as they are +1000 to win the division, way behind the Buccaneers and Saints. Coming in as slight underdogs at home to Seattle, also shows that the books are likely judging their offseason moves as subpar to stay as favorites in tough matchups this season despite their strong end to the 2019 season.

These high profile matchups are also all on the road, except for the one home Saints game. Putting a number on division rivalries like Falcons vs. Saints is perilous, but there’s no doubt that the Saints are considered much better prospects this season and likely will be considered favorites in both games.

Week 2: at Cowboys (+3.5)
Week 4: at Packers (+3.5)
Week 11 at Saints (+4)
Week 13: vs. Saints (+1)
Week 16: at Chiefs (+7)

Most likely cover

We’ve got some tough games set up here for the Falcons, but the only one the Falcons are favored, is a home game against Denver. They are only favored by three points though, which is a number I can get behind despite the Broncos upgrades on offense this offseason. The Falcons still have the core of a team that won their last four games including six of their last eight in 2020 while the Broncos have yet to prove they can turn things around.

Most likely fail to cover

The Falcons aren’t a team built to take on the Chiefs and consistently come out with close games right now. Also, going into Kansas City is never going to be an inviting environment. And, by the time this game plays in Week 16, there’s a better chance that fans will be back in the stadiums. Even at their best, Atlanta’s weakened secondary and lack of pass rush, will likely hurt them the most against Patrick Mahomes.

Line most likely to change

Green Bay did little this offseason to instill much faith in what Aaron Rodgers and their passing offense can do this season. Going into Green Bay is never an easy proposition but Week 4 still looks good for teams to be playing in front of their teammates and coaches instead of tens of thousands of fans. That kind of environment and a Packers team that has one strong wide receiver and a first round backup quarterback makes for a line that could change after we get three games in the books for the Packers.

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