Now that free agency and the NFL draft have wrapped up, the NFL MVP odds are likely set barring injuries or trades. As you peruse this year’s odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, you’ll notice that quarterbacks dominate the favorites with 11 of them topping the favorites list. Derrick Henry is the first non-quarterback, with +4000 odds compared to Aaron Rodgers at +3300 as the 11th player on the list. Since 2007, there have been 12 quarterback MVPs and one running back MVP.
Moving on up
Tom Brady, Buccaneers (+1600)
Brady was at +3300 to win MVP after Day 1 of free agency, then post-draft, he went to +1600, which puts him with the fifth highest odds in the league. With Bruce Arians’ pass-first offense, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski to throw to, along with an upgrade at offensive line in the draft, Brady’s MVP chances are real.
Drew Lock, Broncos (+7000)
Lock is still a longshot to win MVP, but after the Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler and added Melvin Gordon in free agency, his odds have improved considerably. At the start of free agency, Lock’s MVP odds were +125000, so he’s made a pretty big jump. He’s not a recommended wager even with those offensive additions but there’s no doubt that his odds should have gotten the boost they did.
Josh Allen, Bills (+5000)
Allen’s odds went from +6600 the day after free agency started to +5000 post draft. The addition of Stefon Diggs and drafting running back Zach Moss should help Allen and the Bills offense, but he will need to put up MVP level statistics as a passer or move his rushing numbers up even more and we haven’t seen him come close to that just yet.
Moving on down
Deshaun Watson, Texans (+2500)
Watson has seen a big drop in his odds to win MVP this offseason, as he was at +1200 after the Super Bowl, +1600 at the start of free agency and now at +2500 post-draft. That is a testament to just how bad Bill O’Brien has been at building around his stud quarterback. But, if you think Watson, Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller can stay healthy, Watson still has a chance to win MVP, as he is just that good.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (+3300)
Rodgers has seen an even bigger dip in his MVP odds than Watson, as he was at +1600 after the Super Bowl, +1800 at the start of free agency and now at +3300 post-draft. The former MVP got no help in the draft, as the team drafted QB Jordan Love in the first round instead of a wide receiver, which was very much needed. Then, in one of the deepest receiver drafts in history, they ended up drafting no wide receivers. If the Packers do well this season, Rodgers numbers likely won’t be close to MVP caliber.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (+6600)
Cousins lost Stefon Diggs and it looks like the sportsbook isn’t bullish on rookie Justin Jefferson being able to step up quick enough to fill his shoes. Cousins was sitting at +5000 to win the MVP at the start of free agency and is now at +6600. Minnesota likely is going to look to win with the running game and defense while Cousins will have to do with Adam Thielen and a rookie receiver to help him put up MVP-caliber statistics.
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