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Handicapping Tom Brady and Peyton Manning for The Match

We know all about Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson when it comes to their golf games. What about Peyton Manning and Tom Brady?

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning talk on the field during the 100 year team celebration prior to Super Bowl LIV on February 2, 2020 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. Photo by Rich Graessle/PPI/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Memorial Day weekend is just around the corner, and with it comes The Match. Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson squared off in 2018 for a $9 million purse and have been trying to figure out a rematch ever since.

With the Covid-19 pandemic suspending the PGA Tour season, they agreed on a charity match in which Woods would pair up with Peyton Manning and Mickelson would pair up with Tom Brady. There is over $10 million on the line, but all the money will go to Covid-19 relief efforts. The match play event is set for this Sunday, May 24th at 3 p.m. ET. Turner Sports will broadcast the event across TNT, TBS, truTV and HLN.

There are a host of odds to bet on at DraftKings Sportsbook, including the basic who will win option, and prop bets dealing with performances on each hole. Woods and Manning are favorites at -225, while Mickelson and Brady are listed at +175. 53 percent of the betting handle is on Woods and Manning, while 54 percent of total bets are on Mickelson and Brady.

Some of the more popular prop bets include which team will lead after three holes and which team will win the back 9. Additionally, a lot of folks are betting on the Hole 1 winner, who will have the longest tee shot on Hole 3, and who will hit the ball nearest to the hole on the tee shot at Hole 8.

We know everything there is to know about Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson on the golf course. We know their strengths and weaknesses, and we know their history. The same cannot be said of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

One big question of note in handicapping this kind of match is how you handle the amateurs. Plenty of professional athletes spend a lot of time on the golf course, but few reach the level of a Tony Romo, who has attempted to make a go of it on the PGA Tour. Manning and Brady play their fair share of golf, including various charity and celebrity tournaments, but how do we decide just how good or bad they are?

We chatted with DraftKings Sportsbook operations director Johnny Avello about handicapping Brady and Manning. He said that he has Manning as roughly a stroke and a half better for handicap. Additionally, he has watched both their golf swings and thinks Manning has the better technique.

The latter insight is notable for prop bets on Holes 3, 4, and 8. The longest tee shot on Hole 3 prop bet has Manning favored at -134, while Brady is at +105. The book released betting splits on this prop, and it’s interesting to note that Brady and Manning are both getting 26 percent of bets, but Brady is getting 70 percent of the handle! People love the dog.

For Hole 8 nearest to the tee, Brady is bringing up the rear with 15 percent of bets and 7 percent of handle. Manning is getting 17 percent of bets and 12 percent of handle.

If you want to do some handicapping of your own, you can check out their respective swings with a little YouTube snooping (Brady video, Manning video). Manning played at the Pebble Beach Pro Am this year, and he and his pro partner Luke Donald finished tied for 9th.

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