Now that free agency and the NFL draft have wrapped up, the NFL offensive rookie of the year odds are likely set barring injuries or trades. As you peruse this year’s odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, you’ll notice that quarterbacks and running backs dominate the favorites with four running backs and three quarterbacks in the Top-8. Even in a year with one of the best receiver drafts in a long while, it holds true that QBs and RBs are the most likely positions to win OROY, as wide receivers have won three times since 2000, running backs have won nine times and quarterbacks have won eight times.
Moving on up
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (+700)
Just before the draft, Tagovailoa’s odds to win OROY were at +1000. As soon as he went to the Dolphins with the fifth overall pick, his odds shot up to +700. There was plenty of talk that the team was interested in Justin Herbert and that Tagovailoa might drop due to his hip injury, but that was all smoke, and once he got that call, he moved into the slot just behind Joe Burrow in the Rookie of the Year race.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (+700)
Edwards-Helaire was touted as a possible first-rounder, but behind D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor. When the Chiefs called his name with the last pick of the first round, his chances to win OROY went way up. Before the draft, he sat at +1600 to won OROY and after, he moved into a tie for second in the running. Besides being the first running back taken and the only first-rounder, he landed on an offensive juggernaut with plenty of room for a big season. He’ll need to beat out Damien Williams, but if he does, watch out.
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (+2000)
Reagor wasn’t expected to go in the first round, which is why his odds were high at +5000. Now at +2000, he’s not one of the favorites, but his draft capital could get him on the field to start the season and then it’s up to him. and Carson Wentz to do some damage.
Cam Akers, Rams (+2000)
Akers ended up landing in a great spot for his chances to win OROY, as the Rams let Todd Gurley go this offseason. They still have Darrell Henderson, but Akers is expected to get the lead back job in an offense that can really accumulate statistics for running backs. People are down on the Rams and probably for good reason, but their offense continued to put up points last season.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (+3300)
Aiyuk wasn’t expected to go so early in the draft, but the 49ers picked him 25th overall in the first round, raising his profile and possibly making him a key part of their offense. The 49ers Super Bowl run shows they can win and after losing Emmanuel Sanders, there was room for a No. 1 wide receiver, but there are also plenty of mouths to feed. Aiyuk will need to get going quickly and consistently to have a chance.
Moving on down
D’Andre Swift, Lions (+1200)
Swift was considered by many to be the top running back in the draft and he was still taken as the second running back off the board, but he landed in a tough spot alongside Kerryon Johnson in Detroit. His competition in Detroit pushed his odds from second to fifth on the favorites list. He should get playing time, but how much is a question that makes it tough to be all in on him for OROY.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts (+1000)
Taylor went from +800 to +1000 after getting picked by the Colts. The question bookmakers have is if Marlon Mack will be a hinderance to Taylor’s rushing attempts and if Nyheim Hines will hurt his receiving work. Those two will likely hurt his upside but Taylor still looks like a player who should win the lead back duties behind a good offensive line and an offense that should run better with Philip Rivers behind center.
Justin Herbert, Chargers (+1400)
Herbert’s odds went from +1100 to +1400 as there was a chance he landed in Miami, where he likely would have been the de facto starter from Week 1. But, with the Chargers, there’s a real chance that Tyrod Taylor gets the start early. Add to that, the Chargers likely conservative offense this season, and Herbert has a steep hill to climb for good rookie numbers.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens (+1600)
The Ravens weren’t the team Dobbins needed to land with for immediate work, which dropped his OROY odds from +1000 to +1600. The spot in itself is great, as the Ravens have the ability to run the ball down the opponent’s throat all game. Unfortunately for Dobbins, Mark Ingram is ahead of him at the moment. There is a chance that changes throughout the season, but Dobbins will probably need an Ingram injury to truly have a shot at the rookie hardware.
Zack Moss, Bills (+6600)
Moss was one of my favorite backs in the draft, but he landed in a nearly impossible spot for rookie production. The Bills already have Devin Singletary as lead back and even he loses goal line touchdowns to quarterback Josh Allen. Moss will need an injury to Singletary to have a shot at the prize.
|Player||Draft Day Morning||Post-Draft|
|Player||Draft Day Morning||Post-Draft|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||5000||10000|
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