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Breaking down betting splits for SC Paderborn 07 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

We break down the odds and betting splits for Saturday’s matchup, with Hoffenheim in desperate need of points to avoid relegation.

Sebastian Rudy of TSG 1899 Hoffenheim runs with the ball during the Bundesliga match between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC at PreZero-Arena on May 16, 2020 in Sinsheim, Germany. Photo by Thomas Kienzle/Pool via Getty Images

One team with faint hopes of European football will host a side that seems destined for 2. Bundesliga next season when SC Paderborn 07 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 9:30 a.m. ET this morning. There is no US domestic broadcast of the match scheduled, but can be found online.

Paderborn eeked out a needed point in a 0-0 draw at Dusseldorf in the first match after the Covid-19 stoppage, but their path to safety is murky. They sit at the foot of the 18-team league on 17 points, six from the playoff spot and 10 from true safety. Reaching 16th position and surviving two legs with the third-place team in 2. Bundesliga is their best path, but that will be a challenge with a -24 goal differential and just 30 tallies this season.

Hoffenheim fell 3-0 at home to Hertha Berlin, a setback as they sit four points adrift of a Europa League spot in 2020. It’s been an injury-plagued season, and they’ll need performances from Christoph Baumgartner and Robert Skov to have any chance to mid-week nights next season.

Right now SC Paderborn 07 is +220 at home, with 7% of the handle and 11% of the bets on them to win. A tie is receiving +270 on the three-way line at the same 7% & 11% splits, with TSG Hoffenheim at +108 getting the overwhelming majority of 86% of the cash and 78% of the tickets.

It seems there’s a slight path for sharper money to be fading the road chalk, but we’ll see if it holds as we get closer to kickoff.

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