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DFS considerations for Daniel Rodriguez vs. Gabriel Green

Daniel Rodriguez faces a replacement fighter at UFC on ESPN 9, with Gabriel Green making his UFC debut. We break down DFS considerations.

Opponents Daniel Rodriguez and Gabe Green face off during the UFC weigh-in at UFC APEX on May 29, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC on ESPN 9 brings MMA back to Las Vegas for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic broke out in the United States. The 11-fight card is headlined by a welterweight contenders showdown between Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns.

The preliminary card opens just after 6 p.m., and includes a welterweight fight between Daniel Rodriguez and Gabriel Green. If you’re taking part in some UFC daily fantasy sports contests this weekend, this is a curious matchup to say the least.

Rodriguez was originally slated to fight Kevin Holland. However, Holland suffered an injury in training and had to back out. Gabriel Green replaced him in what will be Green’s UFC debut. Green is 9-2 in his pro MMA career, but he has never fought in UFC, and this marks his first fight since August of 2018.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez enters the fight with an 11-1 record and won his UFC debut, a submission win over Tim Means at Fight Night 167 this past February. In the nearly two years since Green last fought, Rodriguez has fought five times.

Rodriguez comes in with a DraftKings DFS price of $7,300, while it is no surprise Green is the lowest priced fighter at $6,800. We have no DFS performance info for Green, but Rodriguez is the second-highest scoring fighter thanks to his second round submission win over Means. He had 49 significant strikes and one knockdown in the victory.

Rodriguez is a sizable favorite at -335 to Green’s +250, and it’s no surprise 87 percent of total bets and 86 percent of total handle are on Rodriguez. There’s an element of uncertainty due to Green’s lack of UFC experience, but Rodriguez offers considerable upside.