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NHL All-Star - Lesson 04 - Game Predictions and Goalie Selection

In this article I will explain how the Las Vegas odds (money lines and over/under) can help us make the right goalie selection for our lineups on a daily basis. When selecting your starting goalie in daily fantasy hockey, two of the most integral parts…

Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

In this article I will explain how the Las Vegas odds (money lines and over/under) can help us make the right goalie selection for our lineups on a daily basis.

When selecting your starting goalie in daily fantasy hockey, two of the most integral parts of your research should be the Las Vegas money lines and the over/under. Utilizing the information gained from this area should help improve your goalie selection and get you better results.

On a night where there is a full slate of NHL games, it can be overwhelming trying to figure out what goaltender to target for your lineup. This is where the Las Vegas odds come into play. The Las Vegas oddsmakers tend to be very accurate, so we need to listen to what they are telling us each and every day.

Money Line

The money line will show which team is favored for the game, and the bigger the separation of the line, the bigger the favorite. The favored team is shown with the larger negative number (and when the number is the same, it said to be a “pick’em” game). For example, if the money line is: Team1 150 vs. Team2 -220, Team2 is favored. Getting a win from your goaltender is extremely important in daily fantasy hockey, so the bigger the money line (i.e. -180, -225) the better chance you have to likely come away with the win.

Over/Under

Most of the time you will see a 5.5 over/under for NHL games, and it is rare to see a 5 or a 6 over/under, so when we do we’d better take notice. If the oddsmakers list a game at a 5 over/under, they are expecting a low scoring, tight checking affair. If one of the teams involved in this game is also a bigger money line favorite than, say, -150, he makes a great play as your goalie for that evening. Conversely, if we see a 6 as the over/under, Vegas is projecting a high scoring game, and we are not interested. Also if a team is only a slight favorite, is an underdog, or is in a pick’em game, we should stay away.

In addition to this, we’d prefer that our goalie is playing on home ice; it is not a must, but definitely a preference. Being at home is a big advantage, whether it is a certain routine, home cooking, or sleeping in your own bed, our goalie and the team in front of him are likely to be much better that night if they are playing on home soil.

In Conclusion

Ideally, we want our goalie to be at home, listed as a heavy favorite for that game. If they are also in a game with a low Over/Under, that is a bonus.