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DFS considerations for Merab Dvalishvili vs. Gustavo Lopez

A last minute replacement steps into the octagon for the first time as a big underdog

Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia reacts after the conclusion of his bantamweight bout against Casey Kenney during the UFC Fight Night event at Santa Ana Star Center on February 15, 2020 in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

When Ray Borg pulled out of his schedule fight with Merab Dvalishvili for “personal reasons,” Dana White was forced to find a last-minute replacement. He ended up with UFC newcomer Gustavo Lopez from the Combate promotion, who enters as the largest underdog on the card at UFC Fight Night on ESPN+ this evening.

DraftKings DFS Values

Merab Dvalishvili: $9,200
Gustavo Lopez: $6,800

Dvalishvili is a -770 favorite on the money line, with Lopez listed at +500 to pull the upset.

Because of how he wins, Dvalishvili is a bigger on the money line than he is in fantasy. He’s 10-4 career, but seven of those victories are by decision. All five of his career UFC fights have gone the distance, and after losing his first two he’s won three in a row. He’ll want to get on the mat early, with an astonishing 7.8 takedowns per 15 minutes of octagon time in his UFC career.

Not much is known about Lopez, but he’s 11-4 career and has won three in a row via first round stoppage, with 10 early endings in victories overall. He tapped out Vicente Marquez Enriquez in 50 seconds via shoulder choke, then Jose Alday in 2:19 by TKO and Joey Ruquet by KO in 1:49. He certainly has stopping power, but you’ve likely never heard of those opponents unless you’re related to them.

If Lopez can perform on the big stage and translate the sucess he’s had against a more talented fighter, he’ll be a steal at just $6,800. But Dvalishvili’s lack of stopping power makes him a stayaway at such a heavy price.