Two fighters separated by just $100 in DFS value square off when Charles Rosa faces Kevin Aguilar in tonight’s UFC Fight Night on ESPN+ card. There’s a much bigger discrepancy in the odds pricing, so is there DFS value here?
Charles Rosa: $7,800
Kevin Aguilar: $7,700
Rosa is actually the underdog on the money line at +150, with Aguilar is favored -190.
Rosa is 12-4 in MMA, but just 3-4 in a UFC octagon. His exciting style shows up in the stats, where he averages 3.21 significant strikes per minute, as well as 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. He’s got 11 stoppages in those 12 wins, and his last two fights were a first round submission of Manny Bermudez by armbar, and a unanimous decision loss to Bryce Mitchell.
Aguilar is 17-3 career, with 10 of his 11 stoppages by KO or TKO. He’s a standup fighter at 3.85 big strikes a minute, with only one takedown in his four UFC fights completed. He’s followed up two wins with two losses, and was a first-round TKO victim Zubaira Tukhugov in his last fight.
Rosa’s pressing style might leave an opening for Aguilar, but it would seem this one is going to the judges. Aguilar tends to win via the cards, and Rosa tends to lose that way. If you’re looking for first round stoppages, unless you think Rosa can get in early and do quick damage for the win, this might be a fight to avoid for DFS purposes tonight.