The highlight match on the preliminary card of UFC on ESPN 11 is Clay Guida vs. Bobby Green at lightweight, a pair of veterans looking to make headway in a loaded division.
Clay Guida: $7,100
Bobby Green: $9,100
Green is a -250 favorite on the money line, ahead of Guida’s +195.
Guida is 38 and has been in the UFC since 2006, earning a 15-13 record. He’s 35-19 overall with 20 stoppages at both featherweight and lightweight. He wants to win on the mat, with three takedowns every 15 minutes, and provides a veteran test for his opponent.
Green is 24-10 overall, but 1-5-1 in his last seven fights in UFC after finding victory in his first four. He’s got 17 stoppages (eight KO/TKO’s, nine submissions) in his career, but he might need a win here to stay a part of the roster. He lands 5.15 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.48, and his 0.83 takedowns per full fight means he won’t want to push things as a grappler.
Green hasn’t stopped anyone since November of 2013. Guida has one stoppage win since New Year’s Day 2011. This is fantasy poison. For DFS purposes, run away from this fight like you’re being chased by either one of these men who can still very much beat you up.