Because of a positive Covid-19 test from the corner of fighter Matt Frevola, Frank Camacho gets a new opponent in last-minute replacement Justin Jaynes at UFC on ESPN 11 tonight in Las Vegas. But does this make for a good fantasy angle?
Frank Camacho: $8,000
Justin Jaynes: $6,900
Camacho is the favorite at -360, while Jaynes comes off the bench as a +260 underdog.
Camacho missed weight today by two pounds, which cost him 20% of his purse but nothing at the betting window as both his odds and his DFS price stay the same. And since this price was set when Matt Frevola was the scheduled opponent, you’re getting quite the discount than you would on a fighter with a replacement opponent. Though he’s 22-8 and has lost three of his last four fights, the quality of opponent he’s faced is good UFC quality.
Justin “Guitar Hero” Jaynes has shown some promise, with a 15-4 record and 13 early stoppages. He’s won his last three fights all by first round stoppage in the World Extreme Cagefighting promotion, and has been victorious in nine of his last ten bouts. But he’s really stepping up in class here, and Camacho knows his way around the octagon.
If you think Camacho’s weight miss is a sign of a fighter that just doesn’t want to perform anymore, that would be the only argument for staying away. Otherwise the overlay you’re getting with him competing against a last-minute replacement is just too great to leave off your roster. Despite the losses and the weight miss, Camacho should be a winner here and provide plenty of value.