clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

How the public is betting UFC on ESPN 11 shortly before the card starts

UFC on ESPN 11 opens at 5 p.m. and closes with a heavyweight contender main event. We break down betting splits as of Saturday afternoon.

Frank Camacho and Justin Jaynes face off during weigh-ins for UFC Fight Night at the UFC APEX. Handout Photo-USA TODAY Sports

UFC starts its UFC on ESPN 11 Fight Night event in just a couple hours, and we’ve got one last look at how DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are approaching the 12-fight card. UFC on ESPN 11 starts at 5 p.m., with the main card starting at approximately 8 p.m. Austin Hubbard and Max Rohskopf open the evening with a lightweight bout, while Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov close it with a heavyweight contenders bout.

DK offers a look at betting splits, which help us get a handle on where there might be some inefficiencies in the market. We saw betting splits for the main card on Wednesday, and then a look at the whole card following the close of business on Friday.

The most notable change saw the betting public jump on underdog Justin Jaynes. Frank Camacho was originally slated to fight Matt Frevola, but when one of Frevola’s cornermen tested positive for Covid-19, he had to drop out. Jaynes replaced Frevola, and a day after early money came in on Camacho, the betting public is giving the edge to Jaynes.

The top three handle percentages are north of 80%. Raquel Pennington is getting 91% of the handle, Max Rohskopf is at 85%, and Bobby Green is at 83%. Four fighters are north of 80% in total bets. Green and Roosevelt Roberts are at 84%, Pennington is at 83%, and Curtis Blaydes is at 79%.

We have two fights with a reverse split. For Cortney Casey vs. Gillian Robertson, Casey is getting 55% of bets, while Robertson is getting 59% of handle. Given Casey’s issues at weigh-in, sharp money on Robertson would make sense. Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good has been a tough one to figure out, with 60% of bets on the favored Muhammad, but 56% of total handle on the underdog Good.

UFC on ESPN 11 Friday betting splits

Fight No. Fighter Opening odds 6/19 odds % Handle % Bets
Fight No. Fighter Opening odds 6/19 odds % Handle % Bets
1 Austin Hubbard +162 +162 13% 25%
1 Max Rohskopf -200 -200 87% 75%
2 Roxanne Modafferi -150 -124 54% 51%
2 Lauren Murphy +120 +100 46% 49%
3 Frank Camacho -360 -360 95% 91%
3 Justin Jaynes +260 +260 5% 9%
4 Cortney Casey +110 -106 59% 61%
4 Gillian Robertson -137 -118 41% 39%
5 Oskar Piechota -137 -112 22% 41%
5 Marc-Andre Barriault +110 -112 78% 59%
6 Brianna Van Buren -225 -230 76% 75%
6 Tecia Torres +175 +180 24% 25%
7 Bobby Green -250 -250 81% 82%
7 Clay Guida +195 +195 19% 18%
8 Jim Miller +185 +185 10% 14%
8 Roosevelt Roberts -240 -240 90% 86%
9 Belal Muhammad -155 -130 47% 62%
9 Lyman Good +125 +105 53% 38%
10 Marion Reneau +115 +140 6% 20%
10 Raquel Pennington -143 -180 94% 80%
11 Josh Emmett +115 +115 33% 40%
11 Shane Burgos -143 -143 67% 60%
12 Curtis Blaydes -295 -400 73% 81%
12 Alexander Volkov +230 +297 27% 19%

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.