With real basketball currently on hiatus, DraftKings is hosting simulated basketball games! Tuesday’s game is between the Wizards and Thunder, and it gets underway at 3 p.m. ET. Take note of the rules since this contest doesn’t work like any other contest we have had before.
Set your free to play lineups here: Simulated Basketball $2K FREE Contest (OKC vs WAS)
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Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Chris Paul ($9,800) is a bit expensive, although there aren’t a ton of high-end plays to love in this game. The Thunder has fairly spread production and the Wizards only feature one guy producing big fantasy points with regularity. CP3 averages 37.33 DKFP, which is the second-most of any player in this game. Typically, he wouldn’t be a priority play for me at this salary, but due to the other options on this slate, Paul looks like a strong play. Another high-priced guard on OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400) is also really expensive and averages slightly less DKFP than CP3. Paul is the preferred option of the two guards.
Danilo Gallinari ($8,000) is one of the safer plays in this game. He doesn’t have a massive ceiling, but he scores 31.71 DKFP per game and we normally see him score right around his average. As per usual, Gallo is priced below Dennis Schroder ($9,000), which shouldn’t be the case. Schroder averages 31.27 DKFP, so slightly less than Gallinari, but is $1,000 more expensive. Gallinari is the stronger option of the two.
In the mid-tier, we can typically consider Steven Adams ($8,600) a solid option. Oddly, he’s been priced way up for this simulation, which is likely due to the lack of strong plays in this contest. Adams averages 30.04 DKFP and also hasn’t had many duds, scoring under 19 DKFP just five times all season. He’s fine as a filler play, but I am not going out of my way to target him. Relative to price, I think Nerlens Noel ($4,000) makes for the better value of the two OKC centers.
It should come as no surprise that Bradley Beal ($16,500 CP/$11,000) averages the most DKFP in this game. He scores 48.33 DKFP per night and also has a really high floor. He’s easily my favorite choice for the Captain spot since there aren’t any other big fantasy producers in this game. In addition, Beal is a bit cheaper than we have seen in recent Wizards sim games. There should be a much bigger price gap between him and guys like Chris Paul and SGA.
This is how we know the fantasy production from Washington has been ugly. Their second-highest fantasy producer is Davis Bertans ($7,400), who averages 27.6 DKFP. For this price at this amount of production, I am comfortable fading Bertans. Per dollar, there are better plays on this slate. In the same price range, Gallinari is a better option.
The two point guards on the roster, Ish Smith ($6,200) and Shabazz Napier ($5,400), were splitting minutes the last time we saw Washington play. I find this pricing to be a bit weird. Despite being cheaper, Napier is actually the slightly better fantasy producer of the two. He averages 24.04 DKFP compared to an average of 23.84 DKFP for Smith. With an $800 gap in the prices, Napier is easily the stronger play of the two.
For value, Thomas Bryant ($4,600) is a player I am honing in on. His season has been set back by injuries, but he was one of the Wizards’ best fantasy producers prior to getting hurt. Despite playing limited minutes after coming back from a stress fracture, Bryant is still the third-highest scoring fantasy player on the team, yet he has the sixth-most expensive salary. This is a clear sign that there is value to his price tag. Bryant is my favorite value play in this contest from either team.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.