clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Breaking down mid-week betting splits for UFC on ESPN 12

UFC on ESPN 12 is a few days away and we’ve got some early betting splits. The public can tell us a lot as we figure out picks for this weekend.

Dustin Poirier prepares to enter the Octagon prior to his lightweight championship bout against Khabib Nurmagomedov of Russia during UFC 242 at The Arena on September 7, 2019 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC wraps up its run of Apex facility events this Saturday with UFC on ESPN 12. There will be a two-week break following this event as the organization and the fighters relocate to Abu Dhabi for the events at Fight Island.

The June 27th card has seen some replacements, but the main event remains the same. Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker will square off in a lightweight contenders bout. The rest of the main card includes a welterweight fight between Mike Perry and Mickey Gall, a middleweight fight between Brendan Allen and Kyle Daukaus, a heavyweight bout between Gian Villante and Maurice Greene, and a catchweight fight between Sean Woodson and Julian Erosa.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted some early betting splits that have resulted in line movement for three of the fights. The biggest comes in the co-main event, with Mike Perry getting a slight edge in handle and a larger edge in total bets. The most interesting movement would be Maurice Greene improving as the favorite in spite of betting splits in favor of the underdog Gian Villante. Reverse line movement suggests some sharp money could be coming in on the favorite.

We’ll have an updated look at betting splits Saturday morning and again Saturday afternoon. Friday’s weigh-ins will likely result in some notable movement. It would not be surprising to see at least one fighter looking like death warmed over after struggling to meet a weight limit. Keep an eye out for that as you consider your wagering options.

UFC Fight Night June 27th betting splits, Thursday

Fights Opening odds 6/25 odds % Handle % Bets
Fights Opening odds 6/25 odds % Handle % Bets
Gian Villante +180 +188 79% 81%
Maurice Greene -230 -240 21% 19%
Luis Pena -265 -265 73% 82%
Khama Worthy +205 +205 27% 18%
Mike Perry -286 -315 53% 67%
Mickey Gall +220 +235 47% 33%
Dustin Poirier -225 -225 76% 72%
Dan Hooker +180 +180 24% 28%
Jordan Griffin -112 -106 92% 60%
Youssef Zalal -112 -114 8% 40%

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.