A veteran of the ring plays gatekeeper to a newer fighter about the same age when Gian Villante takes on Maurice Green at UFC on ESPN 12 tonight. But is there a reason to add this fight to your DFS roster?
Gian Villante: $7,600
Maurice Greene: $8,600
Greene is a -225 favorite on the money line, with Villante trailing at +175.
Villante is 17-11 career and 7-8 in the UFC. He lands 4.49 strikes per minute, but absorbs 6.43. He’s never threatened for the title and is unranked, but he won’t want to get on the mat much here either. He hasn’t stopped a fighter since Saparbek Safarov in December of 2016, though he has 10 KO’s and two submissions on his record. In the UFC he also averages just 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Greene is one year younger at 33 and is 8-4 overall, 2-2 in the UFC. His last two fights are a pair of losses; a TKO by Sergei Pavlovich, and an armbar loss to Alexey Oleynik. He does land 4.58 strikes per minute, but he’s yet to takedown an opponent in his four fights in the promotion. The Evanston, Illinois native has two knockouts and four submissions in his MMA career.
This is a find-your-form opportunity for Greene, who steps down in class if not weight against Villante. But it’s also a bad matchup for fantasy purposes as Greene, who has four submissions amongst his eight wins, is facing a fighter that’s never tapped out in his career and has an 83% takedown defense. This seems destined for either a Villante underdog knockout, or to go the distance. Betting Greene here seems bad value for the fantasy price.
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