A last minute change on the preliminary card at UFC on ESPN 12 tonight involves unranked welterweights Takashi Sato and Jason Witt. Does the change add to the DFS angle of the fight?
Ramiz Brahimaj was originally scheduled for this fight, but had to withdraw due to a positive Covid-19 test from his cornerman. Witt was named a last-minute replacement, and made weight for the fight on just 48 hours notice and looked fine on the scale.
DraftKings DFS Values
Takashi Sato: $8,900
Jason Witt: $7,300
Sato is a strong favorite at -278 on the money line, where Witt is +215.
Sato is 15-3 in MMA, and 1-1 in the UFC after falling to Belal Muhammad via rear-naked choke in September of last year. During his two bouts in the promotion, he’s averaged 3.13 strikes per minute. The southpaw from Tokyo is 30 years old, and has ten KO’s and two submissions on his resume, and previously fought mostly in Pancrease in Japan.
Witt’s nickname is “The Vanilla Gorilla” and has a 15-5 career record. He’s won seven of his last eight in promotions such as the Legacy Fighting Alliance, Final Fight Championship, and Zak Cummings Promotions - Stronger Men’s Conference 2018 (we didn’t make that up, promise). He’s got 10 stoppage wins across his 15 victories, seven of them by submission. The 33-year-old from Kansas City made his pro debut in May of 2013.
There’s just too much working against Witt here. “The Vanilla Gorilla” came in from Kansas City to face a fighter with outstanding stand-up skills that’s had a full camp. Also Witt’s last three fights have been wins, but they’ve all gone the distance. If a fighter can’t get a stop he shouldn’t be on your DFS card, and that would seem a tall order for Witt here.
We’ll take Sato, and hope Witt gets a chance to show his skills at another point with more notice and the opportunity to step up more slowly.
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