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Why Notre Dame vs. Navy now has value for bettors

One of the low-key trends in college football is the Mids at home. And now they’re adding an extra game in Annapolis with Notre Dame.

Head coach Ken Niumatalolo of the Navy Midshipmen celebrates with TJ Salu #60 late in the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on December 14, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.The Navy Midshipmen defeated the Army Black Knights 31-7. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

With the scheduled game between Notre Dame and Navy moving to Annapolis and back a week today, there’s an opportunity for bettors to take advantage of one the low-key best trends in college football this decade.

Since 2015 the Navy Midshipmen are 19-9-1 at home. They were 5-1 at home last season. They are impossible to play against, and are even better in big games on their turf. Their triple option offense, even with an entire training camp to prepare, is just so difficult because it can’t truly be simulated in practice. And if you do full-go simulate it, someone is going to lose an ACL because your scout team doesn’t know how to cut-block and keep people safe like the team that has done it every practice for decades.

But the line for this game, which was +16.5 when it was scheduled for Dublin, Ireland, is still at +16. Of course any football team would rather have 17, and Navy will have a new quarterback in Perry Olsen or Jeremiah Boyd to replace Miami Dolphins draftee Malcolm Perry, but how can you doubt the system put in place by Ken Niumatalolo who is 98-59 in 12 seasons on The Yard?

The preseason SP+ rankings would have Notre Dame at -18.5 over an average FBS team and Navy at -1.9. So the line of 16.5 makes sense on a neutral field in Dublin. But with the Mids at home? This shifts to a Navy to cover quickly.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700(NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.