The co-main event of UFC 250 has a pair of Top 10 bantamweights in Raphael Assuncao and Cody Garbrandt fighting for the now-vacant belt. But does that translate to DFS value?
Garbrandt checks in at $8,600 at DraftKings, and a -155 favorite on the betting line. That’s pretty good for a fighter that’s lost his last three bouts, and one who hasn’t had his hand raised since December of 2016. It’s because when we wins, he does it early and with authority. The 11-fight winning streak he started his career with saw nine stoppages, seven of them in the first round. If he’s in that form, he’s a steal at $8,600. He’s also never been taken down in the UFC.
Assuncao is 27-7, with 14 stoppages amongst his fights. But he’s also seen the third round in nine of his last 10 bouts. When you’re looking for someone that can end things early, he might not be the right fit. Garbrandt is a brawler and will come out swinging, and if Assuncao finds an opening and can put him away early, the $7,600 price would show great value. But the odds of that seem very unlikely for someone with only four career KO’s.
For DFS value, if you think Garbrandt can revert to his previous form, there’s probably not a better buy on the card. You’ll likely know after the first round if this was the right decision.
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