Breaking down 2020 NFC South win total betting splits

The NFL appears to be on track to play a full season in 2020, meaning there’s a good chance our season long bets will actually play out. DraftKings Sportsbook has released betting splits for team win totals which gives us a good look into how the public sees each team’s chances this season. Whether you’re inclined to back or fade the betting public, this information offers some helpful insight into where you might want to go with your picks.

New Orleans Saints, Win total: 10.5

Over (-106): 99% handle, 90% bets
Under (-115): 1% handle, 10% bets

Notable additions: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Jameis Winston, C Cesar Ruiz*, LB Zack Baun*
Notable departures: S Vonn Bell, OLB A.J. Klein, QB Teddy Bridgewater

Everyone is on the Saints to hit their over and it isn’t even close. They have won 13 games in each of their last two seasons and had a positive offseason. They will have more trouble with Tampa Bay than in previous seasons, but there is no doubt they are a veteran team that is poised to win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Win total: 9.5

Over (-110): 63% handle, 72% bets
Under (-110): 37% handle, 28% bets

Notable additions: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, OT Tristan Wirfs*, S Antoine Winfield Jr.*, RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn*
Notable departures: QB Jameis Winston, OLB Carl Nassib, WR Breshad Perriman, RB Peyton Barber

The Buccaneers have the talent now, but will they be able to put it together well enough to post the most wins they’ve had since 2010? The betting public seems to be on board, with two-thirds of the money going for the over, but I’m still skeptical.

Atlanta Falcons, 7.5 Win total

Over (+107): 54% handle, 58% bets
Under (-130): 46% handle, 42% bets

Notable additions: RB Todd Gurley, OLB Dante Fowler, TE Hayden Hurst, CB A.J. Terrell*, DT Marlon Davidson*
Notable departures: OLB De’Vondre Campbell, OLB Vic Beasley, TE Austin Hooper, RB Devonta Freeman, CB Desmond Trufant

The Falcons have betters working on both sides of their win total fairly evenly, but they also have had very little total handle, according to the sportsbook. Last season the Falcons were awful in the first half and then came on to finish the season strong, but still ended at 7-9. If they had put together a better offseason, I would expect more betters hitting the over.

Carolina Panthers, 5.5 Win total

Over (-115): 79% handle, 81% bets
Under (-106): 21% handle, 19% bets

Notable additions: WR Robby Anderson, OLB Tahir Whitehead, OG John Miller, OT Russell Okung, DT Derrick Brown*, DE Yeture Gross-Matos*
Notable departures: S Eric Reid, CB James Bradberry, OG Trai Turner, QB Kyle Allen, OL Daryl Williams, TE Greg Olsen, OG Greg Van Roten, OLB Mario Addison, DE Gerald McCoy

The Panthers are a wildcard, as they have a new head coach, offensive coordinator and starting quarterback. So far, betters have embraced the newness and the moves the Panthers made, as they go hard on the over. Last season’s five wins were their fewest since 2010, but with no offseason work due to Covid-19 and with so many new pieces, the team should struggle.

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