The NFL appears to be on track to play a full season in 2020, meaning there’s a good chance our season long bets will actually play out. DraftKings Sportsbook has released betting splits for team win totals which gives us a good look into how the public sees each team’s chances this season. Whether you’re inclined to back or fade the betting public, this information offers some helpful insight into where you might want to go with your picks.
Minnesota Vikings, Win total: 8.5
Over (-150): 94% handle, 84% bets
Under (-110): 6% handle, 16% bets
Notable additions: WR Justin Jefferson*, CB Jeff Gladney*, OT Ezra Cleveland*, WR Tajae Sharpe, DT Michael Pierce
Notable departures: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Xavier Rhodes, CB Trae Waynes, DT Linval Joseph
The NFC North didn’t have a great offseason overall and that includes the Vikings, who lost Stefon Diggs and two defensive back starters. They did well to replace their losses, but with mostly rookies. Right now, both the Vikings and Packers are getting a bunch of play on the over, as their totals are low. The Vikings won 10 games last season, and 8, 13, 8, and 11 the four previous seasons. They should challenge for the division title again and that means nine or more wins is very much a possibility.
Green Bay Packers, Win total: 8.5
Over (-137): 99% handle, 91% bets
Under (+113): 1% handle, 9% bets
Notable additions: OT Ricky Wagner, WR Devin Funchess, QB Jordan Love*, RB A.J. Dillon*
Notable departures: LB Blake Martinez, OT Bryan Bulaga, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham
The Packers went from a 6-9-1 season in 2018 under Mike McCarthy to a 13-3 season under Matt LeFleur in 2019. Now their win total is set at 8.5 after an offseason that didn’t address their wide receiver problems. The Packers 2019 record is a little inflated, but it’s hard to say the Packers aren’t in line for another season with nine or more wins.
Chicago Bears, Win total: 7.5
Over (-115): 94% handle, 71% bets
Under (-106): 6% handle, 29% bets
Notable additions: QB Nick Foles, OT Germain Ifedi, DE Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, TE Cole Kmet*, CB Jaylon Johnson*
Notable departures: S HaHa Clinton-Dix, OLB Leonard Floyd, DT Nicholas Williams
The Bears “upgraded” to Nick Foles, which means they stayed about the same after going 8-8 last season. Their defense should keep them in games while their offense will be inconsistent. With 94 percent of the handle on the over, I think bettors are relying too much on the Bears defense to push their team to eight wins.
Detroit Lions, Win total: 6.5
Over (-130): 26% handle, 41% bets
Under (+107): 74% handle, 59% bets
Notable additions: OLB Jamie Collins, S Duron Harmon, CB Daryl Roberts, WR Geronimo Allison, CB Jeffrey Okudah*, RB D’Andre Swift*
Notable departures: OLB Devon Kennard, C Graham Glasgow, CB Rashaan Melvin, CB Darius Slay, OT Ricky Wagner
The Lions bettors believe they will win fewer than seven games, even with Matthew Stafford returning. That isn’t too surprising after they went 6-10 in Matt Patricia’s first season and 3-12 last year with Stafford hurt for much of the season. The Lions should be much better and could be in the running to get those seven wins in a division that is pretty weak at the moment.
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