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The NFL appears to be on track to play a full season in 2020, meaning there’s a good chance our season long bets will actually play out. DraftKings Sportsbook has released betting splits for team win totals which gives us a good look into how the public sees each team’s chances this season. Whether you’re inclined to back or fade the betting public, this information offers some helpful insight into where you might want to go with your picks.
Kansas City Chiefs, Win total: 11.5
Over (+107): 69% handle, 88% bets
Under (-130): 31% handle, 12% bets
Notable additions: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire*, LB Willie Gay Jr.*
Notable departures: DE Emmanuel Ogbah, LB Reggie Ragland, OG Stefen Wisniewski, CB Kendall Fuller
Kansas City has the highest win total going into the 2020 season with 11.5 while the Ravens come in second at 11 wins. Over their last seven seasons the Chiefs have won 12, 12, 10, 12, 11, 9 and 11 games, all under Andy Reid. Last season, Patrick Mahomes missed some games and played through injury and they still won 12 games. Bettors are on the over in a big way, with over 2⁄3 the money and nearly 90 percent of all bets. Even though it’s the highest the highest over/under in the league, people love the Chiefs.
Denver Broncos Win total: 7.5
Over (-110): 97% handle, 94% bets
Under (-110): 3% handle, 6% bets
Notable additions: DE Jurrell Casey, CB A.J. Bouye, RB Melvin Gordon, C Graham Glasgow, WR Jerry Jeudy*, WR KJ Hamler
Notable departures: CB Chris Harris Jr., DE Derek Wolfe, C Connor McGovern
The Broncos are a popular pick to see a real step up in wins in 2020 after winning 5, 6 and 7 over their last three season. Betters are all over them getting to eight or more wins this season, which makes sense after a strong draft. The question for 2020 is if Drew Lock is good enough to get the ball to his playmakers. Eight wins would seem to be just about right for the Broncos, but pushing them as a team to easily finish with a winning record is still premature.
Los Angeles Chargers Win total: 7.5
Over (-130): 82% handle, 49% bets
Under (+107): 18% handle, 51% bets
Notable additions: CB Chris Harris Jr., LB Nick Vigil, OT Bryan Bulaga, OG Trai Turner, DT Linval Joseph, QB Justin Herbert*, LB Kenneth Murray*
Notable departures: QB Philip Rivers, LB Thomas Davis, OT Russell Okung
The Chargers have a strong defense and good offensive playmakers but are weak at quarterback, with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert both likely getting starts. After four wins last season and a division that is getting better around them, I like the under much better than what the handle looks like so far.
Las Vegas Raiders Win total: 6.5
Over (-150): 53% handle, 51% bets
Under (+123): 47% handle, 49% bets
Notable additions: LB Cory Littleton, TE Jason Witten, DT Maliek Collins, S Damarious Randall, WR Henry Ruggs III*, CB Damon Arnette*
Notable departures: CB Daryl Worley, LB Tahir Whitehead, S Karl Joseph
The Raiders weren’t great last year by any measure, but they showed up and made teams beat them. Under Jon Gruden they won four games in 2018 and seven in 2019. They added some help offensively in the draft and should be able to give us a similar season to last year without much trouble. Seven wins again sounds about right, with a chance to beat that number. Money is pretty evenly split on the over and under for 6.5 wins, but I’m leaning over.
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