The NFL appears to be on track to play a full season in 2020, meaning there’s a good chance our season long bets will actually play out. DraftKings Sportsbook has released betting splits for team win totals which gives us a good look into how the public sees each team’s chances this season. Whether you’re inclined to back or fade the betting public, this information offers some helpful insight into where you might want to go with your picks.
New England Patriots Win total: 8.5
Over (-130): 91% handle, 80% bets
Under (+107): 9% handle, 20% bets
Notable additions: QB Brian Hoyer, WR Marqise Lee, S Kyle Ugger*, DE Josh Uche*
Notable departures: QB Tom Brady, OLB Kyle Van Noy, S Duron Harmon, DT Danny Shelton, TE Rob Gronkowski (sort of)
The Patriots have won 10 or more games in 17 straight seasons. One of those was an 11 win season without Tom Brady, so we can’t fade them completely. Of course, that 2008 team was much better than this 2020 version overall. So far bettors are on board with Bill Belichick elevating Jarrett Stidham and his team to a winning record. I’m not as sold.
Buffalo Bills Win total: 8.5
Over (-130): 89% handle, 89% bets
Under (+107): 11% handle, 11% bets
Notable additions: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Josh Norman, OLB Mario Addison, DE A.J. Epenesa*, RB Zack Moss*
Notable departures: RB Frank Gore, DT Jordan Phillips, DE Shaq Lawson
The Bills added Stefon Diggs and Zack Moss to boost their offense after winning 10 games in 2019. This season they’ll also get a much easier Patriots team to matchup against while the Dolphins and Jets will remain below average. The handle is heavily on the Bills, even at -130, which seems appropriate.
Miami Dolphins Win total: 6.5
Over (+118): 84% handle, 91% bets
Under (-143): 16% handle, 9% bets
Notable additions: QB Tua Tagovailoa*, OT Austin Jackson*, CB Noah Igbinoghene*, OG Robert Hunt*, CB Byron Jones, RB Jordan Howard, RB Matt Breida, OG Ereck Flowers, OLB Kyle Van Noy, C Ted Karras
Notable departures: C Evan Boehm, CB Aqib Talib
The Dolphins get Tua Tagovailoa along with a host of rookies and will be better, but how much better and how soon? They won five games as Ryan Fitzpatrick helped them play better than their skill level. With limited offseason workouts, the Dolphins and Tagovailoa will likely be behind where they would normally be.
New York Jets Win total: 6.5
Over (+100): 88% handle, 83% bets
Under (-121): 12% handle, 17% bets
Notable additions: OT Mekhi Becton*, WR Denzel Mims*, CB Pierre Desir, OT George Fant, WR Breshad Perriman
Notable departures: WR Robby Anderson, CB Darryl Roberts
The Jets amazingly won seven games last season and four, five and five the three previous seasons. They upgraded their offensive line, which was a big need and added Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman after letting Robby Anderson go to the Panthers. The handle is in favor of the Jets getting to seven wins again, but I’m still not sold. Sam Darnold will need to stay healthy and get in rhythm with his new receivers quickly.
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