CFB Hall of Fame - Lesson 03 - Blowout Factor

Every week there will be Vegas lines that scream “blowout” due to a wide point spread. A lot of people will avoid these games altogether, but there is some value to be had in these games. It’s never a good idea to heavily target these games, but one or two players isn’t a bad idea. The “blowout factor” should be taken in to account in any game that the point spread is 28 points or more. These games are the ones that get out of hand quickly, allowing the second string players to get some playing time.

Targeting the Underdog

Generally, targeting the underdog in these games is a bad idea. The wide point spread is indicative of the major talent difference between the two teams. The mid-major schools don’t stand much of a chance against the top teams in the country and won’t score too many points. It’s typically best to just avoid the underdog in a massive point spread as there aren’t too many points to be had from that side.

Targeting the Favorite

Teams that are favored by 28+ points are going to be teams that have close to elite talent at most positions, which is why they’re favored so heavily. If the game gets out of hand quickly, and it usually does when the spread is that wide, the second string players normally get to see a fair amount of snaps and have a shot at being valuable fantasy options. It’s not usually a good idea to play these guys in cash games, but the backups in a huge point spread make viable tournament options. Game flow isn’t as important in the massive blowouts, because the coaches will let the bench warmers go out and run the offense and get experience. That being said, the running backs still have more value than quarterbacks or wide receivers because they will still most likely get more touches as the game winds down.

One thing that sometimes goes overlooked when it comes to gauging blowouts is the fact that it turns in to a blowout because of the starters. If the first string players aren’t scoring at will, the game doesn’t become a blowout. If the game has turned in to a blowout, it’s because the starters came in and did their thing and put the opposition away early. This can make star players in a wide point spread very valuable and can be had at somewhat low own percentages. Again, it’s best to target the running backs, because if/when the game gets out of hand, the running backs will see the bulk of the work until the backups come in to the game. Wide receivers can be very volatile, but also have very high ceilings in these situations, as the passing game leads to big plays and long touchdowns, which is the most fun way to get fantasy points.

All in all, there is value to be had in games that look to be incredibly lopsided. Just make sure you understand the risk you are taking on when approaching these games. If the upside outweighs the risk, push in your chips and have a fun sweat.

Continue Reading CFB Training Camp

CFB Hall of Fame – Lesson 01 – Using Vegas to Predict Performance
CFB Hall of Fame – Lesson 02 – Knowing When to Punt a Position
CFB Hall of Fame – Lesson 03 – Blowout Factor
NEXT LESSON – CFB Hall of Fame – Lesson 04 – Research Tools

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