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DFS considerations for Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns meet for the welterweight championship at UFC 251 from Fight Island on July 11th. We break down what to consider in setting your DFS lineups.

Opponents Kamaru Usman of Nigeria and Jorge Masvidal face off during the UFC 251 official weigh-in inside Flash Forum at UFC Fight Island on July 10, 2020 on Yas Island Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

The main event of UFC 251 should be one to remember, as welterweight champion Kamaru Usman takes on Jorge Masvidal as a last-minute replacement. But is there DFS value in this fight?

This was all necessitated by when Gilbert Burns tested positive for Covid-19 and was unable to get on the chartered flight from Las Vegas to Yas Island in Abu Dhabi last Friday. But that fight was only the replacement for what everyone wanted, which was the 16-1 champion Usman taking on Masvidal, who has a career record of 35-13 and has won six of his last eight including a TKO win over Nate Diaz in his last outing.

The bad blood between the two has been extensive, from trash-talking on social media to a clash on Radio Row during the Super Bowl in the fighter’s mutual home of South Florida. There’s a ton of dislike here and it will likely spill over into the octagon on “Fight Island.”

DraftKings DFS Values

Kamaru Usman: $8,900
Jorge Masvidal: $7,300

Right now Usman is a -230 favorite to win on the money line, while Masvidal is the +180 underdog.

Masvidal, who holds the fastest knockout in UFC history, is +250 to knockout Usman, while the champion is just +210 to win by KO. That means there’s likely not a ton of fantasy value on Usman, who has just eight stoppages in his 16-1 career. Most of those are against fighters far inferior to “Gamebred.”

If you’re taking a DFS side here, despite Masvidal losing 22 pounds in six days and having no training camp, it’s probably better to be on the underdog with the value offered that frees up your salary cap. He’s also earned stoppages in his last five wins. This one is either Masvidal or a pass.