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DFS considerations for Leonardo Santos vs. Roman Bogatov

Leonardo Santos meets Roman Bogatov in a lightweight bout at UFC 251 from Fight Island on July 11th. We break down what to consider in setting your DFS lineups.

Opponents Leonardo Santos of Brazil and Roman Bogatov of Russia face off during the UFC 251 official weigh-in inside Flash Forum at UFC Fight Island on July 10, 2020 on Yas Island Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

A 40-year-old fighter that is undefeated in the UFC fights a 29-year-old Russian that is undefeated in MMA when Leonardo Santos and Roman Bogatov square off at lightweight at UFC 251 tonight. Which one should be on your DFS roster?

DraftKings DFS Values

Leonardo Santos: $8,800
Roman Bogatov: $7,400

Santos is the -167 favorite over the underdog and black octagon newcomer Bogatov at +137.

Santos is 17-4-1, with a 6-0-1 mark in the UFC. A four-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Cup Champion, he moved to the UFC in 2013. He’s got 12 career stoppages, and as a BJJ practitioner he wants to fight on the ground. Nine of his 17 MMA wins are via submission, with only 2.4 strikes per minute landed in his UFC fights.

So when there’s no stats on new fighters, we go to the videotape. And the 10-0 career Bogatov looks like the real deal. He’s very creative in his submissions, he looks like he has speed, and he can defend himself. He’s certainly stepping up in class here, though all the requisite skills seem to be there.

But since both fighters want to be on the mat and look relatively evenly matched, that’s not good at all for DFS scoring. We’ll be interested to see how Bogatov reacts against what is likely the best opponent he’s faced, but there’s just not enough data here to project how he’ll do.

Very much looking forward to this one, but only as a spectator as it won’t be on our DFS rosters.