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DFS considerations for Marcin Tybura vs. Maxim Grishin

Marcin Tybura faces off against Maxim Grishin in a heavyweight bout at UFC 251 from Fight Island on July 11th. We break down what to consider in setting your DFS lineups.

Marcin Tybura of Poland and Maxim Grishin of Russia face off during the UFC 251 official weigh-in inside Flash Forum at UFC Fight Island on July 10, 2020 on Yas Island Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Two heavyweights that said to be dead even by bookmakers square off when Marcin Tybura takes on Maxim Grishin at UFC 251 tonight in Abu Dhabi. But which of the two is more likely to score extra DFS points in a win?

DraftKings DFS Values

Marcin Tybura: $8,100
Maxim Grishin: $7,900

It’s a dead heat on the odds board, with both fighters listed at -112.

The biggest thing to be noticed here is the massive weight advantage for Tybura on the scales yesterday. He came in at 252 lbs., while Grishin tipped them at 223 lbs. And Tybura can get it on the mat if needed, as he averages 1.54 takedowns per full fight in his 5-4 UFC career. He’s also got six career submission victories, though none as of late.

Grishin has won seven and drawn two in his last nine fights, and clearly has KO power. But is it overwhelming and fast enough to give up 30 pounds on short notice (he’s a last-minute replacement for Alexander Romanov) to a fighter with UFC experience? Seems like a tall order. Here’s a highlight video if you want to see what he’s got to offer.

Giving up that much weight on short notice and entering the UFC for the first time seems like a recipe for disaster. We’ll be on Tybura, and hope Grishin finds a path in the promotion after a full camp. And with his build, that path might be at light heavyweight (205 lbs.) instead of heavyweight (265 lbs.).