Raulian Paiva might be on his way out of the UFC, and a loss to promotion newcomer Zhalgas Zhumagulov at UFC 251 tonight on “Fight Island” could be the end of the road for him. Can we find some DFS value in this fight?
Raulian Paiva: $8,700
Zhalgas Zhumagulov: $7,500
Paiva, despite missing weight yesterday by three pounds, remains a -180 favorite against the +142 Zhumagulov.
For a guy that’s 1-2 in the UFC, it’s probably not a good idea to miss weight by before the last fight on your initial contract. But that’s what Paiva did when he came in at 129 lbs. yesterday, three pounds over the limit at flyweight. He’ll forfeit 20% of his purse for the fight to his opponent.
The Brazilian Paiva is an active fighter, coming in with 4.81 strikes per minute, and he did beat Mark De La Rosa by second round KO on February 15th to move his overall MMA record to 19-3, but 12 of those wins were by decision. And he averages only 48.3 DFS points in his UFC fights. That’s terrible for fantasy purposes.
Zhumagulov seems like he knows what he’s doing on tape, and is 13-3 with seven stoppages in his career. He’s won four in a row to get here, but all four were by decision in the Fight Nights Global promotion. The 31-year-old from Kazakhstan has been fighting in MMA since September of 2014, and has only been stopped early once as a professional.
There are a ton of red flags here on both fighters, so this might be one to avoid for fantasy purposes. You can find better options available than guessing what will happen here without a ton of available information.