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DFS considerations for Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo

Karol Rosa faces Vanessa Melo in a women’s bantamweight bout at UFC 251 from Fight Island on July 11th. We break down what to consider in setting your DFS lineups.

Opponents Karol Rosa of Brazil and Vanessa Melo of Brazil face off during the UFC 251 official weigh-in inside Flash Forum at UFC Fight Island on July 10, 2020 on Yas Island Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

A pair of bantamweight Brazilian women that don’t get stoppages do battle at UFC 251 when Karol Rosa takes on Vanessa Melo on “Fight Island” this Saturday night. This seems terrible for DFS purposes, but when one fighter misses weight by five (5) pounds, there might be some opportunity here.

DraftKings DFS Values

Karol Rosa: $9,200
Vanessa Melo: $7,000

Rosa opened as a -240 favorite, and is now -250, whereas Melo has moved from +185 to +195.

Rosa was a fantasy beast in her last appearance which doubled as her first-ever UFC fight. She racked up 126 points in a split decision win over Lara Fritzen Procopio. She is 12-3 in her MMA career with six stoppages, and seems to have the best of it in this fight.

Melo is 0-2 in the UFC and 10-7 overall. She’s also is giving 30% of her purse for this fight to Rosa because she came in a bag of sugar overweight yesterday. Both her losses were unimpressive unanimous decisions, and getting a roll of stamps and mailing in a weight cut doesn’t seem great for your long-term prospects in Dana White’s company. She averaged just 27 DFS points in those losses.

Rosa is expensive, but she looked great at the weigh in and has shown the ability to score. We’ll have her on our rosters, and hope she can find an early stoppage over someone that might not be back in a UFC octagon after tonight.