Two bantamweight Brazilian women fight tonight at UFC 251, but only one made weight. Vanessa Melo came in an astonishing five pounds overweight for her bout with Karol Rosa on “Fight Island” this evening. Despite the controversy, which will have Melo forfeit 30% of her purse to Rosa, the lines for this fight haven’t moved.
Rosa is 12-3 in MMA with six stoppages, and was in a slugfest for her split decision win over Lara Fritzen Procopio last August to win her first UFC fight. She landed 11.4 strikes per minute and absorbed 11.0 in a fight that was solely standing up.
Melo is 10-7, 0-2 in the UFC, and possibly on her way out of the promotion with a loss considering how Dana White feels about making weight. She’s tried to win on her feet, not even attempting a takedown while giving out 3.6 strikes per minute with a 28% accuracy rate, but taking 6.8 at a 48% clip. She’ll need to improve those numbers to possibly stay a contracted fighter here.
Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Karol Rosa vs. Vanessa Melo at UFC 251 on July 11th:
Karol Rosa: Opened -240, now -240 (89% of action, 84% of bets)
Vanessa Melo: Opened +185, now +185 (11% of action, 16% of bets)
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