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How the public is betting Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

Kamaru Usman faces off against Jorge Masvidal in a welterweight championship bout at UFC 251 from Fight Island on July 11th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight.

Update 12:35 a.m.: As we get ready for the final fight of the night, Kamaru Usman checks in as a -286 favorite, while Jorge Masvidal is a +230 underdog.

The main event of UFC 251 tonight, and the most-anticipated fight of 2020, is welterweight champion Kamaru Usman facing off against enemy and recent replacement Jorge Masvidal. Usman was originally slated to face Gilbert Burns, but the latter tested positive for Covid-19 before the flight to Abu Dhabi. Burns was replaced by Masvidal in the fight everyone wanted to see in the first place.

This marks the first fight of 2020 for both fighters. Usman last fought in December 2019, beating Colby Covington via fifth round TKO at UFC 245. Usman is 16-1 and has won 15 straight fights, seven of them by knockout and one by submission.

Masvidal is back for his first fight since a third-round TKO over Nate Diaz last November at UFC 244. He is 35-13 over his lengthy career, and “Gamebred” has won his last three fights by KO or TKO. He has had some bad blood with Usman for a while, including a clash on Radio Row during the Super Bowl in the fighter’s mutual home of South Florida.

It’s the fight of the year, and bettors are moving the line towards Masvidal so far.

Money line splits

Below are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal at UFC 251 on July 11th:

Kamaru Usman: Opened -265, now -230 (36% of action, 47% of bets)
Jorge Masvidal: Opened +210, now +185, (64% of handle 53% of bets)

Winning method splits

Below are the betting splits for the method of victory at DraftKings Sportsbook for Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal at UFC 251 on July 11th:

Kattar-Ige Winning Method

Winning Method Odds % Handle % Bets
Winning Method Odds % Handle % Bets
Calvin Kattar By KO, TKO or DQ -115 64% 40%
Calvin Kattar By Decision +275 15% 29%
Calvin Kattar By Submission +1400 9% 4%
Dan Ige By Decision +500 7% 13%
Dan Ige By KO, TKO or DQ +900 3% 7%
Dan Ige By Submission +900 2% 3%
Tie +6600 < 1% 5%

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