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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Figueiredo vs. Benavidez at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Figueiredo vs. Benavidez at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil and Joseph Benavidez face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 2:20 p.m.: We have updated betting splits for the main event, with Deiveson Figueiredo taking on slightly more action as fight time get closer. Bettors also think the most likely way he wins is via KO/TKO/DQ, just as he did in Round 2 when these fighters met in February.

Updated Bet Splits

Deiveson Figueiredo: -225 (63% of action, 66% of tickets)
Joseph Benavidez: +180 (37% of action, 34% of tickets)

Winning Method

Figueiredo vs. Benavidez Winning Method

Winning Method Odds % Handle % Bets
Winning Method Odds % Handle % Bets
Deiveson Figueiredo By KO, TKO or DQ +110 54% 56%
Joseph Benavidez By Decision +325 25% 17%
Deiveson Figueiredo By Decision +400 13% 14%
Joseph Benavidez By Submission +1100 4% < 1%
Joseph Benavidez By KO, TKO or DQ +850 2% 8%
Deiveson Figueiredo By Submission +650 1% 5%
Tie +6600 < 1% 1%

The top two flyweight fighters in UFC will run it back tonight at UFC Fight Night, as Deiveson Figueiredo holds the top spot and will face Joseph Benavidez for the second time this year. Figueiredo defeated Benavidez via TKO in a February match, but missed his chance to claim the title after missing weight. But both fighters came in on the number for this one, so unless there’s a draw someone is going home with the belt.

Figueiredo has an 18-1 record and is considered to be the most dominant fighter in his weight class for a reason. His victory against Benavidez during their last fight showed how good he was, landing 21 less punches but adding in a takedown for the KO at 1:46 of the second round.

Benavidez is 28-6 and hasn’t been nearly as active as Figueiredo as of late. The fight he lost in February was his first since January of 2019. He’s more of a mobile fighter that wants to stand up and strike, but also got knocked out just 4.5 months ago.

Below are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez at UFC Fight Night on July 18th on ESPN:

Betting splits

Deiveson Figueiredo: -225 (60% of action, 67% of tickets)
Joseph Benavidez: +180 (40% of action, 33% of tickets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Deiveson Figueiredo: $9,000
Joseph Benavidez: $7,200

If you think Figueiredo can display the same power he did the last time these two squared up, he’s a bargain at $9,000. He still scored 98 fantasy points while being out hit, meanwhile Benavidez has 28 career wins, but 11 of them are by decision. He’s scored very well against inferior opponents. but that’s not what he’s getting here.

Figueiredo is the only side worth playing if you’re on this fight, but a pass here isn’t a bad idea either when considering Figueiredo’s salary implications.

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