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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Hermansson vs. Gastelum at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Hermansson vs. Gastelum at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Jack Hermansson of Sweden and Kelvin Gastelum face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 2:30 p.m.: We have updated betting splits for the fight tonight, and they show a nominal amount of action coming in on Jack Hermansson. We also have the ways people are betting on the result for the first time, and in a dead-even fight it looks like Hermansson is getting a slight edge, but punters still expect this to go the distance.

Jack Hermansson: -112 (31% of action, 44% of bets)
Kelvin Gastelum: -112 (69% of action, 56% of bets)

Winning Method

Hermansson vs. Gastelum Winning Method

Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Jack Hermansson By Decision +200 44% 22%
Kelvin Gastelum By Decision +250 19% 58%
Kelvin Gastelum By KO, TKO or DQ +300 17% 10%
Jack Hermansson By Submission +550 15% 6%
Jack Hermansson By KO, TKO or DQ +750 3% 4%
Kelvin Gastelum By Submission +1000 1% < 1%
Tie +6600 1% < 1%

Two Top 10 middleweights in #6 Jack Hermansson and #7 Kelvin Gastelum look to move up the rankings tonight at UFC Fight Night on Fight Island. And as of now, the bookmakers think it’s a dead even contest. But who is betting on them, and should they be on your DFS roster?

Hermansson is 20-5, looking to bounce back from a loss to Jared Cannonier via second-round TKO last September that ended a four-fight winning streak. He was seen as a rising star and potential title contender ahead of his fight with Cannonier, but with 10 months off he’ll now want to get a win here to keep his star as bright as it was. He’s as active as anyone, landing 5.13 strikes per minute, and 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Gastelum is 16-5 and looking to bounce back from two straight losses. He lost via decision to Isreal Adesanya for the UFC championship, then fell via split decision in a close one to future Fight Island main eventer Darren Till in November of last year. He has 10 stoppages, and a 10-5 overall record in the UFC.

Here are the betting odds so far at DraftKings Sportsbook for Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 18th:

Betting splits

Jack Hermansson: -112 (28% of action, 41% of bets)
Kelvin Gastelum: -112 (72% of action, 59% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Jack Hermansson: $8,200
Kelvin Gastelum: $8,000

These two are really close clearly, but the activity and stats of Hermansson means he deserves a bit more DFS consideration. Before his loss to Cannonier, he had averaged 122 DFS points in his previous three fights, and did it both ways (two first round guillotines, one decision win). And Gastelum, besides having lost two in a row, had only averaged 100 points per win in his last three victories.

The Swede has 16 stoppages in his 20 career wins, and a much bigger chance of scoring. If this fight is on your roster, take Hermansson.

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