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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Lipski vs. Carolina at UFC Fight Night

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We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Ariane Lipski of Brazil and Luana Carolina of Brazil face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 2:45 p.m.: It looks like the cash is getting behind Ariane Lipski even if the tickets aren’t. The favorite now has 25% of the action behind her, up from 19% earlier today. But her percentage of bets has decreased, as she’s 39% of tickets down from 50% previously.

The weird splits could be bettors taking the Brazilian to win by decision instead, which is drawing a massive 57% of the cash bet on how the fight will finish so far.

Updated Betting splits

Ariane Lipski: -125 (25% of action, 39% of bets)
Luana Carolina: +100 (75% of action, 61% of bets)

Winning Method

Lipski vs. Carolina Winning Method

Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Ariane Lipski By Decision +140 57% 15%
Luana Carolina By Decision +160 26% 66%
Ariane Lipski By KO, TKO or DQ +600 9% 13%
Luana Carolina By KO, TKO or DQ +900 5% 3%
Ariane Lipski By Submission +900 2% 1%
Tie +5000 < 1% 1%
Luana Carolina By Submission +1100 < 1% 1%

A women’s flyweight bout between Ariane Lipski and Luana Carolina is the main female battle on the UFC Fight Night card on ESPN this evening from Fight Island. But which way should the bettors and DFS players look for value?

Lipski is from Curtiba, Brazil and is known as the “Violence Queen,” has a 12-5 record with eight stoppages, and secured her first win of 2019 and in the UFC last November over Isabela de Padua after losing her first two black octagon bouts. She isn’t particularly active, with just 31 strikes landed and no takedowns in her only UFC win.

Carolina is 6-1 and hasn’t lost since falling to Daiane Firmino in her UFC debut back in 2015. She lands an impressive 6.53 strikes per minutes and has 50 percent striking percentage. Although she hasn’t been in the cage as much as Lipski recently, she won her last fight; a unanimous decision over Priscila Cachoeira where she landed 111 significant strikes.

Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 18th:

Betting splits

Ariane Lipski: -125 (19% of action, 50% of bets)
Luana Carolina: +100 (81% of action, 50% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Ariane Lipski vs. Luana Carolina tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Ariane Lipski: $8,300
Luana Carolina: $7,900

Clearly Carolina is the DFS play to be made even as an underdog. Lipski averages on 45 DFS points in her three career UFC fights, while Carolina picked up 108.5 in only appearance... and that was a loss! The betting splits indicate the sharp money is on Carolina early, and the value she provides DFS bettors here means if she gets the win, she’ll likely need to be on your roster. And there’s a very good chance she gets that win.

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