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DFS Lineup advice for UFC Fight Night and MMA $600k Island Throwdown tonight

UFC Fight Night has a 12-fight card starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ tonight. We’ve got picks and lineup strategy to help you in the $600k Throwdown Special.

Opponents Grant Dawson and Nad Narimani of England face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tonight’s UFC card has plenty of ways to get down action, but if you can pick the right six fighters out of the 24 competing, and stay under the salary cap, you’ll be the big winner in DraftKings MMA $600k Throwdown Special, where $150,000 is guaranteed for first place with just an $18 entry.

Each fighter has an assigned salary, usually in balance with their opponent, and you can’t exceed the salary cap of $50,000. With a premium on stopping opponents early, picking some strikers and submission specialists that can end things in one round or less is crucial. So is being an active fighter that shoots for takedowns and lands significant blows.

Here’s how the scoring works, and notice how heavily it leans towards winning big and early:

Moves

Significant Strikes: +0.5 Pts
Advance: +3 Pts
Takedown: +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep: +5 Pts
Knockdown: +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win: +90 Pts
2nd Round Win: +70 Pts
3rd Round Win: +45 Pts
4th Round Win: +40 Pts
5th Round Win: +40 Pts
Decision Win: +30 Pts

So here are our best bets for UFC Fight Night on ESPN+ MMA Island Throwdown DFS tonight at DraftKings:

Luana Carolina ($7,900)

Carolina picked up 108.5 DFS points in only UFC appearance... and that was a loss! The betting splits indicate the sharp money is on Carolina heavy and early despite her being a small underdog at +100. The value she provides DFS bettors and her fighting style means if she gets the win, she’ll likely need to be on your roster. And there’s a very good chance she gets that win over Ariane Lipski.

Roman Dolidze ($8,900)

Fighters in their debut making the jump from the independent circuit, especially ones coming off a drug suspension, should have more red flags than a semaphore class. But Dolidze looks like an absolute terror. His six MMA wins are all stoppages, and some are downright scary in how easy he made them look. He might have been cheating to get that physique, but we think he mauls Khadis Ibragimov without much difficulty tonight.

Grant Dawson ($8,900)

Being less than $600 over par value is good for a fighter with Dawson’s activity and stopping ability. He’s a favorite on the money line with the sharp action early, and his in-ring activity makes him a buy at this low a price. He’s averaged 5.09 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon with 48% accuracy, and also outstrikes his opponents 3.48 to 2.15 per minute. At -250, he should beat Nad Narimani handily this evening.