The last time Arizona for a Democrat for President was in 1996, when Bill Clinton was the choice of the Grand Canyon State. But despite not voting for any Democrat with more than 45.1% of the population this century, it appears Arizona is leaning towards Joe Biden in the 2020 election for now.
You can make a few dollars on finding the outcome of the upcoming via DraftKings, who is offering $100,000 as part of a free fantasy sports Presidential election contest for those that can predict the winner of 11 swing states for the electoral college. Additionally, PredictIt has established markets for elections that allow you to earn some money while also providing research on elections.
Current Arizona presidential polling
The last best polls (both posted yesterday):
A+: Siena/NYT: Biden 49-43
A-: Emerson: Biden 48-46
Despite the big drop in PredictIt pricing in the state, the latest poll from Data Orbital still has Joe Biden leading 47%-42% in the state. If there’s a reason for the big moves, it’s not based in the polling. Four percent of voters contacted said they are going to vote, but refuse to identify the candidate they intend to vote for. If those break massively for Trump, and they are expected to break at greater than half for him, he could make up some ground. But this isn’t really a change of the facts on the ground in the race.
An A/B rated poll from Data Orbital released on October 7 has Biden leading Trump 48%-43% amongst likely voters. Of the 550 sampled, 49% said they’d be voting for Mark Kelly over Martha McSally in the general election for Senate as well.
An A+-rated New York Times/Siena College poll taken from October 1st (the day Trump publicly came out as Covid-19 positive) to 3rd has Biden leading 49%-41%. That poll also has Biden leading among white voters with a bachelors degree 46%-45%, which would be a massive shift in the state.
There’s a split decision right now in AZ according to an A+-rated ABC News/Washington Post poll. Registered voters have Biden leading 49% to 47% over Donald Trump, but likely voters swing back in favor of Trump at 49% to 48%. As in all close races, this one will be about turnout.
The Senate race is interesting here as well, as retired astronaut Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally 50%-45% amongst registered voters, but just 49%-48% among likely ballot-casters.
A pair of polls gave a split result on what’s happening in Arizona last week. YouGov took a sample of 1,106 likely voters that had Biden leading 47% to 44%, but a B/C rated poll from OH Predictive Insights (stands for Owens, Harkey, not Ohio) showed the former Vice President with a healthy 52%-42% lead amongst 600 likely voters sampled by phone.
That same sample voted 44%-43% for President Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
A new B/C rated Morning Consult poll of 901 likely voters has Biden leading 49%-46% in the Copper State. Though that’s still a statistical dead heat, there also hasn’t been a major poll showing Trump ahead since a poll where the sample closed on August 16th and showed Trump up by 2%.
The most recent poll from Arizona that is A-rated comes from Fox News, which posted on September 2nd and shows Biden leading 49%-40%, which is well outside the margin of error.
In no other state has the ground shifted towards Joe Biden more so than Arizona. The latest Morning Consult poll, taken after both political conventions, shows Biden now leading 52% to 42%. This is a reversal of a 47%-45% lead for Donald Trump taken from the same company from before the party conventions. It seems to be moving well for the Democrat in a state only two blue team candidates have carried since World War II: Harry Truman in 1948, and Bill Clinton in 1996.
The latest poll taken from August 8-10 from Emerson College, an A- rated pollster, has Biden leading 49%-45% as of now. The spread is even more dramatic in the US Senate race where Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, leads incumbent Republican Martha McSally 52%-41%. If the election were tomorrow, it seems Arizona would turn blue for the first time since 1996, and only the second time since 1952.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 2.8%, 47.9% to 45,0%. The site ranks the relative strength of each poll based on past performance, and the most recent poll was a “B” graded one from PPP (Public Policy Polling) on July 21st. That one had Biden ahead 49% to 45%.
For the Arizona Senate seat, it’s even more leaning blue: Mark Kelly leads incumbent Martha McSally 49%-41%, though that is listed as a partisan poll from Spry Strategies.
It’s a pretty drastic shift on the ground in the state so far.
The data that might be even more telling is at PredictIt, a site that allows a limited form of betting on elections in the United States via futures contracts. The site operates via an exemption in US law so political scientists and other academics can use the data in their research showing how the general public feels about an upcoming event or election. And for now, they show that most people think Arizona will go the way of the Democrats.
All PredictIt futures contracts traded on the site are based on a $1.00 outcome, but they don’t always add up to a buck because of the bid-and-ask pricing on the exchange. For example on July 22nd the Democrats led in Florida .63 cents to .40 cents based on current trading.
Below is a running tally of the closing price at PredictIt. We will update this weekly through the summer, and then more regularly in the fall as we get closer to the election.
Arizona PredictIt Data
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