Georgia voted for fellow southerner Bill Clinton in 1992, but has comfortably voted for Republicans in every election since. No Republican has won by less that 4.2% since, but the demographics and politics of the state appear to be changing. Stacy Abrams lost by only 55,000 votes in 2018 for Governor to Brian Kemp, the closest statewide race in the state since 1966.
And the data does indicate that as of now the Republicans and Donald Trump do lead, the 16 electoral votes are indeed up for grabs in the Peach State in 2020.
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Current Georgia presidential polling
The final highly-rated statewide poll of Georgia:
A-: Emerson: Biden 49, Trump 49. It’s a dead heat in the Peach State heading into Election Day.
It does look like Trump voters are coming home in the Peach State. An A-rated Emerson College has Trump leading 48% to 47% with 5% voting third-party in the upcoming election. It’s the first A-rated poll with the President leading since September 23rd.
Biden leads 55% to 38% amongst voters 18-29, and with college educated voters, but Trump wins with white voters leading 64% to 30%.
Public Policy Polling released a sample on October 10th showing Vice President Biden leading President Trump 47%-46%. In the state’s Senate election, Jon Ossoff leads 44%-43% over incumbent David Perdue, with Libertarian Shane Hazel’s 4% making a big difference.
With turnout high in Atlanta’s NBA arena already, it might be a sign that more people will vote in 2020 in the 404. That would favor the Democrats that dominate city politics.
Two polls have come out in the Peach State, a B-rated poll from Landmark Communications has Biden leading 47%-45%, and a B/C rated Hart Research Associates poll scores it 50%-47% for Biden. Both polls were from before President Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19.
Two polls came out yesterday with different grades, but the same result. A B+ graded Monmouth poll shows Biden ahead 50-47% in Georgia, and so does a B/C graded Civiqs sample. In a state as diverse as the Peach State, ethnicity is still a major separator: the Monmouth poll has black voters supporting Biden 89%-7%, but white voters are behind President Trump 67%-31%.
Georgia has been considered in play for awhile, but it hasn’t tipped in favor of the Democrats in any substantive way yet. An A-rated Monmouth University poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 47% to 46% amongst registered voters, and 48%-46% in a high-turnout scenario.
In most states the larger the turnout, the better case for the Democrats and Biden. But that might not be so in Georgia, where rural whites coming out in droves for the President would keep the 16 electoral votes in his column.
A pair of not well-regarded samples of voters both show Vice President Biden ahead in the Peach State, but the bettors at PredictIt still believe the state is likely to go for President Trump. A poll by Fabrizio Ward & Hart Research Associates has Biden leading 47%-46%, and a HarrisX poll has him ahead 52%-46%. But it seems very unlikely the Democrats win Georgia by such a margin.
The Trump campaign has spent $12.8 million in Georgia on TV advertising so far, while Biden has reserved nearly $4 million in airtime in October and November, but none of those ads have aired yet.
Another Morning Consult poll shows President Trump leading 48%-46% in Georgia as of this morning. But a higher-rate “B” level poll released yesterday by Landmark Communications has Biden trailing by seven 48%-41%.
In the Landmark sample of 500 likely voters, whites favored President Trump 70.8% to 21.3% for Biden, while Black voters had it for Vice President Biden 78.1%-6.9%.
The latest polling from Morning Consult shows the political conventions might have been good for Joe Biden in Georgia. Their latest sampling shows Biden leading 49%-46% after the DNC and RNC, a switch from Trump leading 47%-46% before the events started. It’s within the margin of error, but we’ll see if this trend remains in future polling. No Democrat has won Georgia since Bill Clinton did in 1992.
There is a new poll from Landmark Polling that comes without crosstabs, but shows Joe Biden losing 47%-44% to Donald Trump. One interesting feature of this B-rated poll from FiveThirtyEight.com is that Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen is enough of a factor to garner 4.4% of the vote, ahead of undecided at 3.7%.
An A-rated poll from Survey USA was released yesterday, showing Biden ahead 46%-44% in the Peach State. President Trump leads 3:1 with white voters in the state, while Vice President Biden leads by 14% among women, part of a 26% gender gap in the state.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 1.4%, 47.2% to 45.8%. Two polls were released on this date by Spry Strategies and Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, the former showing Trump up by three, and the latter showing Biden leading by four. While both polls are graded B-C by the site, that’s because they’re both considered partisan polls, which means they were conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee
Georgia also has two open Senate seats this year, and those show a tight race as well: The faceoff between challenger Jon Ossoff and incumbent David Perdue for a full Senate term is within the margin of error by most polling. There has been limited poling on the other race, which will be for the last two years of retired senator Johnny Isakson’s seat. Right now the appointment is held by WNBA team owner Kelly Loeffler, but Democrat Matt Lieberman is ahead in early surveys. The top two candidates will face off on January 5th if none gets more than 50% of the vote on November 3rd, which seems likely.
The data that might be even more telling is at PredictIt, a site that allows a limited form of betting on elections in the United States via futures contracts. The site operates via an exemption in US law so political scientists and other academics can use the data in their research showing how the general public feels about an upcoming event or election. It shows a close race in Georgia, but one still predicted to be held by Republicans ahead of the election for now.
All PredictIt futures contracts traded on the site are based on a $1.00 outcome, but they don’t always add up to a buck because of the bid-and-ask pricing on the exchange. For example on July 22nd the Republicans led in Georgia .57 cents to .44 cents based on current trading.
Below is a running tally of the closing price at PredictIt. We will update this weekly through the summer, and then more regularly in the fall as we get closer to the election.
Georgia PredictIt Data
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