In nine out of the last 10 general elections, North Carolina has voted Republican. The only exception was Barack Obama’s first campaign in 2008 in defeat of John McCain, but he was unable to repeat the feat in 2012 against Mitt Romney.
When one state has been that strong for that long, it’s usually not as in play as the Tarheel State is right now. But the polls for now have Joe Biden leading, and possibly gaining momentum as we get closer to election day.
This is part of a series from us here at DK Nation because DraftKings is offering $100,000 as part of a free fantasy sports Presidential election contest for those that can predict the winner of 11 states in the Presidential election. And don’t forget PredictIt has established markets for elections that allow you to earn some money while also providing research on elections.
Current North Carolina presidential polling
The final highly-rated statewide poll of the Tar Heel State as of November 1st:
A-: Emerson College: Biden 47%-Trump 47%
Despite the movement away from Biden on PredictIt, a major ABC News/Washington Post A+ rated poll has Biden leading 1% and 2% amongst likely voters, and between 2% and 3% among registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%, but of those polled 10% had already voted, and 56% said they planned on voting early.
A Public Policy Polling sample taken from October 4-5, after President Trump was hospitalized has Joe Biden leading 50%-46%. It has Trump’s approval rating in the state underwater at 46% favorable and 51% unfavorable, but Democratic governor Roy Cooper ahead at 49%-38%.
An A/B rated poll from UMass-Lowell has the race 47%-47% in one turnout model, and Trump leading 49%-48% in another higher turnout model. We’ll see which one is right, but it seems NC is very much in play for both parties.
An A-rated Emerson College sample released on September 20th shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 51%-49%, a statistical dead heat. Incredibly of the 717 people polled, only 1% of voters sampled were undecided as to their choice.
An A-rated Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters shows Vice President Biden leading President Trump in the Tar Heel State 46%-43%. Of those polled, 138 thought the country was heading in the “right direction” and 301 said it was on the “wrong track.”
It also asked a question we haven’t seen anywhere else that invokes the recent rhetoric of President Trump: “If you thought you could get away with voting twice in the election, would you do it?” 21 of 500 voters said that indeed they would, 4.8% of those sampled.
A Monmouth University A-rated poll released on September 3rd shows the race in North Carolina could not be tighter, with Vice President Biden holding a 48%-46% lead amongst likely voters.
President Trump’s approval rating amongst those polled was totally split between 46% favorable and 46% unfavorable, while Biden was at 43% favorable and 48% unfavorable despite his polling lead.
It seems the two political conventions might not have changed much on the ground in the Tar Heel State. Polls taken from Morning Consult from after the conventions show Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden 49%-47%. This is almost the exact same as polling from Morning Consult from before the convention, which was 49%-46% in Biden’s favor.
Not a tremendous amount of new polling here, but East Carolina University has it 47%-47% for Joe Biden and Donald Trump as of a survey released on August 16th. The survey combined landlines without an interviewer and an online panel.
In an A-rated Emerson College poll released yesterday, President Trump leads Joe Biden 48%-46%. What makes this poll stand out amongst swing states is the approval rating for the incumbent: 51% of voters in the Tar Heel State approve of the job that President Trump is doing, higher than his national average by about 10 points.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump as of now by 2.9%, 48.8% to 45.9%. But the current spread might even be larger than that based on yesterday’s data. 538 ranks the accuracy of each poll based on past performance, and a rare “A+” rated poll dropped yesterday of NC voters from Marist University and NBC. It showed Joe Biden leading 51%-44%, with 83% of the 1,067 polled being registered voters.
Despite the lead, the poll also showed that Biden has some ground to make up on belief in his ability to handle the economy: Registered voters by a 52%-39% margin selected Trump when asked “who do you think would be better when it comes to dealing with the economy?”
More useful data is at PredictIt, a site that allows a limited form of betting on elections in the United States via futures contracts. The site operates via an exemption in US law so political scientists and other academics can use the data in their research showing how the general public feels about an upcoming event or election. For now, it shows most traders using their real money think North Carolina will go the way of the Democrats.
All futures contracts traded on the site are based on a $1.00 outcome, but they don’t always add up to a buck because of the bid-and-ask pricing on the exchange. For example on July 28th the Democrats led in North Carolina .59 cents to .42 cents based on current trading.
Below is a running tally of the closing price at PredictIt. We will update this weekly through the summer, and then more regularly in the fall as we get closer to the election.
North Carolina PredictIt Pricing
|Date||Dem Closing Price||Rep Closing Price|
|Date||Dem Closing Price||Rep Closing Price|
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700(NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.