Of all the mistakes Hillary Clinton made, and there were plenty of them during her 2016 effort for the Presidency, the one that might have become the biggest talking point to personify her failure was the lack of a visit Wisconsin at any point during her the campaign.
She had a six-point lead with a week to go, and took for granted a state that had voted for a Democrat in every election since Mike Dukakis in 1988 would be winnable without any major investment of resources. But Donald Trump made five campaign stops there, and pulled the upset with a more protectionist trade policy appealing to the union-heavy state. With almost three million votes cast, Trump won by 22,478 and the 10 electoral votes that came with it.
The questioning of Clinton’s campaign strategy began almost immediately. But are we in for a repeat of a red Wisconsin in 2020? According to pollsters and bettors, that seems unlikely as of now.
This is part of a series from us here at DK Nation because DraftKings is offering $100,000 as part of a free fantasy sports Presidential election contest for those that can predict the winner of 11 states in the Presidential election. And don’t forget PredictIt has established markets for elections that allow you to earn some money while also providing research on elections.
Current Wisconsin presidential polling
The last two high-quality polls for Wisconsin have been released, and it still appears that this state is over:
A-: Emerson College: Biden 53%-Trump 45%
A+: Siena College/New York Times: Biden 52%-Trump 41%
With turnout numbers as strong as they have been, this is probably the safest state for Biden of all the swing ones in this election.
Two polls were released yesterday: one by ABC News & The Washington Post, and one was by Marquette Law School. Both the ABC/WP likely voter model and a registered voter model, considered gold-standard polling, had Joe Biden leading by 17 points in the Badger State. Marquette Law had Biden leading by five points with likely voters, and four points amongst registered voters.
With so many people having voted already, Wisconsin is very likely over.
A brand-new A+-rated New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden leading Wisconsin 51%-41%. Of the 789 likely voters sampled, 94% said they would not change their minds before election day. If that’s correct, Wisconsin will be a blue state once again. The state was won by Democrats in the previous seven presidential elections before 2016.
A B-minus Reuters/Ipsos poll has Biden leading 50%-44% in Wisconsin amongst 601 likely voters. The sample was taken between September 29th and October 5th, which is important because of the first presidential debate taking place on September 29th, and the President being diagonsed with Covid-19 on October 1st. And the election is closing fast, with 13% of respondents saying they had already voted.
A new A+ rated Marist College poll has Biden leading 54-44 among likely voters, and 52-44 among registered voters. It’s a bit ahead of where other polling is in that area, but all samples still show Biden leading Trump, just by not as much as here.
Seven lower-rated polls have been added since last week in Wisconsin, and they all show Vice President Biden leading by between 1% and 9% in Wisconsin. This might be the state with the best cost-benefit for President Trump to invest his time and resources to keep a state he won in 2016, and serves as a key to his firewall to a path towards victory.
ABC News/Washington Post polls are considered gold-standard, and this one has Joe Biden leading 52%-46% amongst likely voters, and 50%-46% among registered voters.
President Trump had a 46% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating amongst registered voters, but 53% approved of his handling of the economy, and 46% disapproved.
A Marquette Law School A/B-rated poll released today shows Biden leading 48%-41% over President Trump amongst 802 registered voters, but only 48%-44% with 688 likely voters.
The social unrest in Kenosha is one thing, but 51% of voters think the economy has gotten worse in the last year, while 25% think it has improved. More telling is that 48% think it will get worse over the next year, while just 18% think it gets better.
According to a new Morning Consult poll, it seems Biden’s lead in Wisconsin might be firming up after the two political conventions. A sample taken by Morning Consult before the events showed a 49%-43% lead for the former Vice-President, but now he has a 52%-43% advantage after they were completed.
A Morning Consult poll released last week shows Biden leading in the Badger State 49%-43%. It shows President Trump having a 12-point advantage among white voters without a college degree, but Vice President Biden leading with college-educated voters by 23 points.
An A/B-rated Marquette Law School poll issued yesterday as Joe Biden leading 50%-45% in Wisconsin in a sample that was taken from August 4-9. It’s a state where President Trump is upside down in terms of job approval, with a 44% approving and 54% disapproving of how he’s doing his job.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Joe Biden has a statistically significant lead with 48.9% of the vote to 42.1% for President Trump. That 7.8% spread is wide, but it should be noted there’s a lack of quality polling in the state so far: No sample rated “B” or higher based on past prognostications by 538 has been taken in the Badger State since The New York Times on June 25th, an “A+” rated poll that shows Biden leading 49%-38%.
The cross-tabs here are just as bad for the President as they are in several swing states. He’s at 41% approval vs. 49% disapproval of his job performance, and his performance on race relations in a state that is overwhelmingly white stands out as well: 34% approval, 60% disapproval. But he continues to perform well on the economy, with a 53%-44% lead on that issue.
More useful data is at PredictIt, a site that allows a limited form of betting on elections in the United States via futures contracts. The site operates via an exemption in US law so political scientists and other academics can use the data in their research showing how the general public feels about an upcoming event or election. For now, it shows most traders are betting Joe Biden will bring the state back to the blue column.
All futures contracts traded on the site are based on a $1.00 outcome, but they don’t always add up to a buck because of the bid-and-ask pricing on the exchange. For example on July 28th the Democrats led with Biden at .68 cents to .31 cents based on current trading.
Below is a running tally of the closing price at PredictIt. We will update this weekly through the summer, and then more regularly in the fall as we get closer to the election.
Wisconsin PredictIt Pricing
|Date||Dem Closing Price||Rep Closing Price|
|Date||Dem Closing Price||Rep Closing Price|
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700(NH/CO). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA/CO only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.