Happy MLB Trade Deadl....oh, right. 2020.
I don’t know about you guys but I’m really excited to see the Reds on a main slate for a change! They’ve been playing these weird 6:00 or 6:40 p.m. ET start times and thus omitting themselves from the main slate. So enjoy this while you can! Overall, this is a really good slate with a mix of good pitching options as well as some teams in prime hitting matchups.
This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jordan Montgomery, $7,800, NYY (-210) vs. BOS (+175) — I’m torn about this line. For one, I’m not ready to put my trust into Montgomery, who has a total of 31 and one third innings over the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was good during his first year in 2017, generating a 22.2 K%, a 7.8 BB% with a 4.07 FIP. I’m just not sure I’m ready to get him in my lineups against this Red Sox team that has some really good hitters against lefties. The Red Sox could have up to five players in their lineup that posted an ISO of at least .241, headlined by the .482 of J.D. Martinez ($5,200). Overall, I think the Yankees can win this game so I do agree with them being favored but I’m not sure I’d want to lay down the heavy juice at -210.
Other notable favorites: Yu Darvish ($10,500; -190) vs. Pirates, Sean Manaea ($9,600; -190) vs. Mariners
Highest Projected Total
SDP (-103) vs. COL (-114) 11.5 runs — Our first series at Coors Field this season! Neither team is heavily favored in this one and both teams have a projected run total of 5.5, with the Rockies gaining the slightest of slight edges with -118 on the over. Garrett Richards ($6,500) has some really solid strikeout upside but his control is his biggest problem. You have to go back to 2018 for any significant innings logged by him but in that year he produced a 27 K%. The problem was, he also had a 10.5 BB%. The Rockies have been a patient team up to this point with a team 10.8 BB%, good for eighth in the league.
Jon Gray ($7,500) was actually better at Coors Field than he was on the road last season. Through 75 and one third innings, Gray produced a .315 wOBA and a 3.71 FIP at Coors Field, which is quite impressive. The Padres, were able to knock him around at Coors, tagging him for seven runs on 17 hits through 12 and one third innings. Gray did manage to strikeout 18 in those games, giving him a solid 31.6 K%, so I do think there is some merit using him as a tournament SP2.
Other notable team totals: Yankees (6.5) vs. Red Sox, Braves (5.5) vs. Mets, White Sox (5.5) vs. Royals
Clear night of baseball!
Splits to Start
Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Williams, .393, 5.64
Spencer Turnbull, .347, 4.16
Rick Porcello, .346, 4.73
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tony Gonsolin, .250, 3.68
Dallas Keuchel, .268, 3.21
Mike Clevinger, .282, 3.23
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .339, 5.08
Rick Porcello, .330, 4.80
Matt Andriese, .321, 3.17
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Clevinger, .236, 1.75
Luis Castillo, .256, 3.38
Ryan Weber, .262, 3.24
Pitcher to Build Around
Mike Minor, TEX vs. SF, $9,200 — I’m really digging this spot for Minor against the Giants on the road. While Minor did struggle with home runs on the road last season, I can’t say I’m exactly afraid of that happening here in this matchup. Through 114 and one third innings away from what was Globe Life Park, Minor allowed just a .287 wOBA. This Giants club is producing nearly no power at all and are striking out over 25% of the time thus far. With so many pitchers close in this salary range, I don’t think Minor is going to garner much attention.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. NYM, $5,200 — I was always take the opportunity to grab Freeman against a weak right handed pitcher at home. Freeman posted some absurd numbers at Truist Park last season against righties with a .407 wOBA and a .299 ISO along with 17 of his 38 home runs. Tonight, he’ll face Rick Porcello, who really struggled with the Red Sox last season. Against lefties, Porcello allowed a .346 wOBA with a 4.73 FIP and 13 of his 31 home runs allowed. I think this is a great spot for the Braves overall but any lineup with a stack of them, I’m starting with Freeman.
Save Big by Drafting
Mike Moustakas, CIN at DET, $3,600 — I’m not exactly sure why Moustakas is so cheap but I’m not going to complain. After being cleared to return to baseball activity, Moustakas picked up right where he left off, going 1-for-2 with two walks, a home run two RBI and two runs scored against the Cubs on Wednesday. After rain washed out their game yesterday, he’s now in line to face Spencer Turnbull ($8,100) in Detroit. Last season against lefties, Turnbull had a .347 wOBA with a 4.16 FIP and seven of his 14 home runs allowed. While these certainly aren’t the worst splits you’ve ever seen, I can’t pass up on how cheap Moose is, who had a .342 wOBA and a .264 ISO against righties last season.
Favorite Team To Stack
CHC vs. PIT (Trevor Williams) — I sense picking on Williams ($6,300) is going to be a common theme all throughout the season. I don’t think this stack will be overly popular either, especially with Coors Field on the slate. If that’s true, I’m loving this matchup for the Cubbies, as Williams allowed a .343 wOBA, 5.05 FIP and 14 of his 27 home runs on the road last season. The Cubs completely annihilated Williams last season as well, tagging him for a ridiculous 20 runs on 26 hits, including six home runs through 13 and one third innings. Those numbers produced a .500 wOBA and a 10.11 FIP (!!!!!!) for Williams against the Cubs. Insane.
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