An Emerson College poll conducted from August 8-10 might help give some insight to the which way the 2020 Presidential election is tilting, and so far it seems that’s in favor of former Vice President Joe Biden. The news comes following Biden’s decision to tap Kamala Harris as his running mate. The polls do not reflect this news, and likely won’t for several more days.
Emerson sampled from four states; Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Minnesota. In three of those four states, they found Biden to be ahead, but have Trump holding a one-point lead in North Carolina.
Pennsylvania was one of three states Trump won in 2016 over Hillary Clinton that tipped the election in his favor, along with Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump won by 44,292 out of over six million cast, but when facing Scranton, PA native Biden he appears to be significantly behind: Biden has a 52% to 43% lead, with 5% of respondents undecided.
One interesting split here is how people that intend to vote by mail are breaking. 37% of voters said they intend to vote by mail but 87% of those respondents support Biden.
The same pattern holds in Arizona, which Trump won by about 85,000 votes of ~2.4 million cast in 2016. But Emerson has him trailing Biden 49%-45% with 5% undecided. Of those undecideds, 74% are leaning towards Biden presently, making the President’s journey to get over the top that much more difficult in a state he’ll likely need to win.
In North Carolina the news is a bit better for the incumbent, who leads 48%-46% over his rival. Of the 6% undecided, 59% are leaning towards Biden however.
51% of voters in the Tar Heel State right now approve of the job that President Trump is doing, higher than his national average by about 10 points. It’s a good sign he might be able to hold on to a state he desperately needs to win to find a path to 270 electoral college votes.
At PredictIt, despite the good news for Biden in polling, the bettors have shifted slightly towards President Trump in the past week. In Arizona he’s gained .02 to move to .44 in the past week, and in Pennsylvania from .33 to .35 per $1 futures contract on his upcoming election. In North Carolina the increase is even higher, from .45 to .48 in the last seven days.
If you’re entering DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential election contest, it’s likely this will be needed information as we get closer to November 3rd when we find out who will be the next President Of the United States.