There’s five big checkpoints for any major party challenger to the White House: the selection of a Vice Presidential nominee, the party convention, and the presidential debates. With California Senator Kamala Harris the pick, we’ll head towards the second of the benchmarks this week as for the first time a national convention shall be held virtually.
This will also help bettors participating in DraftKings Sportsbook’s $100,000 Presidential Election pool, which is free to enter and asks participants to select the winner of 11 states as well as the overall election.
How to watch
The 2020 Democratic National Convention will air from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. for the next three nights.
- There’s an official livesteam from the Democratic party available here, and it will also be available on platforms such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. You’ll also get wall-to-wall coverage from C-SPAN, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC. The major networks such as ABC, NBC, CBS, and Fox are only showing the last hour from 10 p.m.-11 p.m., which will include the speeches of former President Bill Clinton, and former Second Lady and wife of the current candidate, Dr. Jill Biden.
- While this convention will likely make less news than ones in the past, as normal business such as approving the party platform has already been done by delegates over email. The speeches will take center stage, and without production and interruptions for applause should mostly be on-time. They will also, for the most part, lack podiums.
- If you’re looking for a possible breakdown of how things are going for the Democrats, PredictIt will offer real time feedback as traders will be buying and selling shares based on the upcoming election as the convention happens. If some major news breaks, you’ll likely be able to track how the politically engaged think it affects the eventual outcome pretty close to immediately.
List of Tuesday speakers
This evening’s activities will be hosted by actress Tracee Ellis Ross, with a theme of “Leadership Matters.”
9 p.m. speakers
Former Acting U.S. Attorney General Sally Yates
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
Former Secretary of State John Kerry
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester
10 p.m. speakers
Former President Bill Clinton
Former Second Lady Dr. Jill Biden
PredictIt Market Prices
Entering the convention, Joe Biden led with a .59 price to win the general election on PredictIt, with Donald Trump at .44.
After last night’s speeches and events, as of 6:45 am this morning, Biden’s lead had shrank to .57, with President Trump up to .46. Keep in mind there are other factors at play here, but the well-regarded speech of Michelle Obama last night did not move any betting markets in Biden’s favor.
This is the real-time opinion of traders on the platform that are buying and selling shares as if they were commodities contracts, so they won’t have to wait until election night to get paid and can profit-take based on what happens between now and the convention. Also keep in mind because of the bid/ask pricing at PredictIt, all pricing won’t add up to exactly $1.
Before Night 1
Arizona: Biden leads .57-.45
Georgia: Trump leads .65-.37
Florida: Biden leads .53-.48
Michigan: Biden leads .74-.31
North Carolina: Trump leads .53-.50
Ohio: Trump leads .63-.39
Pennsylvania: Biden leads .69-.35
Texas: Trump leads .77-.26
Wisconsin: Biden leads .66-.36
After Night 1 (as of 6:45 a.m. today)
Arizona: Biden leads .56-.45
Georgia: Trump leads .65-.36
Florida: Biden leads .53-.50
Michigan: Biden leads .72-.30
North Carolina: Trump leads .54-.49
Ohio: Trump leads .64-.38
Pennsylvania: Biden leads .65-.36
Texas: Trump leads .76-.27
Wisconsin: Biden leads .65-.36