The 2020 NFL season is fast approaching. There will be no preseason games and media coverage is going to be more limited than in past years. This makes it a little more difficult to evaluate camp battles, but it’s never been that easy either. That makes fantasy football draft preparations a little different than in recent seasons.
Below you will find our fantasy football quarterback rankings. Training camp is meaningful and what we learn over the next 20 days will help us rank these players more accurately. But, the bulk of evaluation has been done already. At this point rankings will move based on injuries, camp battles, and depth chart maneuvering. We are using half PPR to balance between standard and full PPR for the time being.
Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are the cream of the fantasy football crop and I doubt I’ll get much pushback on that account. I’m sure there are some Lamar Jackson haters out there who think the Titans figured him out and now he’ll be awful, but he showed me enough to believe he will only continue to improve and find ways to combat defenses who start to find an edge against him.
Patrick Mahomes had a “down” season with injuries and touchdown regression and still was amazing. 5.4 touchdown percentage won’t continue, just as Lamar Jackson’s 9 percent touchdown rate should head back the other way. But his adjusted yards per attempt will likely stay steady, as he led the league last year at 9.6 yards and was third this season at 8.9 yards. Touchdowns come and go, but AY/A is a sticky stat that shows us that Mahomes is no flash in the pan.
Dak Prescott lands at the top of Tier 2 after a big 2019 season and his team swapping Randall Cobb for CeeDee Lamb this offseason. He has the upside to contend with Jackson and Mahomes, giving him some value despite his likely high ADP this season. But the same can always be said for Russell Wilson. If the Seattle defense continues to decline, Wilson will be asked to do more and when he is, he’s easily in Tier 1.
DeShaun Watson gets a bit of a downgrade after losing DeAndre Hopkins, but remains in Tier 2 based on his rushing ability and the hope that Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller stay healthy. Kyler Murray, the quarterback of the team Hopkins went to, is poised for a breakout in 2020. He isn’t as safe as the rest of the quarterbacks in Tier 2, but his upside is great this season.
Tier 3 goes from No. 7 Matt Ryan to No. 12 Tom Brady, with Drew Brees, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz in-between. Those six are almost interchangeable, giving Brady the likely value spot in his knew Tampa Bay digs. I don’t expect him to re-find his youth, but his weapons and offense will make it nearly impossible to not put up decent fantasy numbers.
Mover and Shaker
I’ve moved Gardner Minshew up as his team’s defense erodes and I envision Minshew chucking and scrambling in catch up mode all season. That doesn’t set him up for top tier fantasy production, but does keep his upside higher on a weekly basis.
2021 Quarterback Rankings
|1||Patrick Mahomes II||KC|
|43||Gardner Minshew II||PHI|