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DFS lineup advice for UFC Fight Night and the MMA $400k Throwdown with $100,000 guaranteed

UFC Fight Night will be a 10-fight card starting at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+. We’ve got picks and lineup strategy to help you in the MMA $400k Throwdown and other DFS contests at DraftKings.

Opponents Marcin Prachnio of Poland and Mike Rodriguez face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Let’s be honest: Tonight is a pretty weak UFC card. There’s plenty of “who’s that” and “him again?” guys on here, mixed in with some promotion rookies that aren’t exactly expected to set the MMA world on fire. But that might mean even more value for you in DFS contests like DraftKings MMA $400k Throwdown, with $100,000 guaranteed for first place with just a $15 entry.

As usual each fighter is been given a salary, usually in balance with their opponent but not always due to replacement fighters, and rosters can’t exceed a salary cap of $50,000. With bonus points for stopping opponents early, picking effective strikers and submission specialists that can end things in one round or less, or very active fighters that strike and takedown their opponent frequently, is the best way to score. Being an active fighter that gets finishes is the best for your roster.

Here’s how the scoring works, and notice how heavily it leans towards winning big and early:

Moves

Significant Strikes: +0.5 Pts
Advance: +3 Pts
Takedown: +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep: +5 Pts
Knockdown: +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win: +90 Pts
2nd Round Win: +70 Pts
3rd Round Win: +45 Pts
4th Round Win: +40 Pts
5th Round Win: +40 Pts
Decision Win: +30 Pts

On last week’s UFC 252 card, we picked the three best value fighters to be had all night in this space. But we felt pretty good about that one, and we would here too if the salary cap was about $25,000 more than you’re allotted. Here’s our dart throws trying to hit a bullseye.

Pedro Munhoz: $9,000

A strong DFS play just because of his activity. Especially in a five-round fight against an opponent that isn’t stopped easily, Munhoz’s activity should get him near his 83.3 DFS average even before a decision is rendered. He’s has averaged 122 DFS points in his last three wins, and is very much worth the price being laid here in a 25-minute marathon.

Daniel Rodriguez: $8,700

The DFS gods laid a gift under your tree here. Originally scheduled to fight Takashi Sato, his DFS price didn’t change when Dwight Grant’s opponent pulled out as well and the matched up against each other. Add in his activity rate and the fact he’s now -230 chalk, and it’s too good a spot. Grant is a good fighter and this bout deserves to be higher up the card, but the drop in class with the price being laid is just too much value. Rodriguez averages 115 DFS points per UFC win, so don’t over think this.

Austin Hubbard: $7,800

He’s dead even with his opponent Joe Solecki on the money line, and this discount can help you afford the top of this card which you’ll need to win. You have to save salary where you can and in Hubbard you’ll get a quality puncher that can score even if it goes to a decision. This is a tough card to handicap, but Hubbard might be the best value of those below par cost.