:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/67296451/usa_today_13850359.0.jpg)
Picking a quarterback to lead the league in touchdown passes isn’t exactly the toughest endeavor you’ll ever encounter. If you look at the touchdown leaders from each season, you aren’t going to see names you wouldn’t expect very often. That doesn’t mean picking the right quarterback is easy, but we’re not delving into quantum mechanics here either.
The most surprising touchdown leaders are usually going to be quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes over the last two seasons. Looking at Mahomes’ 50 touchdown 2018 season, we aren’t surprised now, but many people were due to the fact it was his first season as a starter. And the same is true for Jackson, as he hadn’t done much as a passer his rookie year and then went off somewhat unexpectedly for 36 touchdowns last season.
Let’s take a look at the previous leaders:
Pass TD leaders since 2000
| Year | Player | TDs |
|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | TDs |
| 2000 | Peyton Manning | 33 |
| 2000 | Daunte Culpepper | 33 |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner | 36 |
| 2002 | Tom Brady | 28 |
| 2003 | Brett Favre | 32 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | 49 |
| 2005 | Carson Palmer | 32 |
| 2006 | Peyton Manning | 31 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | 50 |
| 2008 | Drew Brees | 34 |
| 2008 | Philip Rivers | 34 |
| 2009 | Drew Brees | 34 |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | 36 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | 46 |
| 2012 | Drew Brees | 43 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 55 |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck | 40 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | 36 |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers | 40 |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson | 34 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 50 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 36 |
As you can see, there have been plenty of repeat league leaders in touchdown passes and they are all players you would expect to do just that. Below, you’ll find my best bets for the passing touchdowns leader using DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds.
Favorite
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, +400
Mahomes is the favorite and for good reason. A healthy Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Last season, injuries slowed him down along with some random regression, but there is no doubt he’d have been in the race for touchdown king again if he had a fully healthy year. With the Chiefs bringing back their main offensive core while adding a strong receiving back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, health is the only thing that will keep him out of the Top-3 this season.
Sleeper
Dak Prescott, Cowboys, +1200
Prescott tossed 30 touchdowns last season and had Jason Witten and Randall Cobb replaced with better offensive players this year in Blake Jarwin and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys changed their head coach, but kept offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who was the architect of many of the positives that came out of the passing game last season. I also don’t expect the team to run the ball more this season, especially after grabbing Lamb in the first round. Prescott is in a good spot to compete for the touchdown lead this season.
Longshot
Kyler Murray, Cardinals, +2000
Going with the theme over the last two seasons, Murray would be the third second-year quarterback in a row to win the touchdown crown. Expectations are high after Arizona added DeAndre Hopkins to the mix, while they have a good receiving back in Kenyan Drake, a talented Christian Kirk in his second year with the offense and even a tight end in Dan Arnold who has gotten some recent praise. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, when clicking, is suited for many passing touchdowns. Last season, he had three games through his first eight where he even threw a touchdown, whereas he threw a touchdown in all but one in the last eight matchups. We saw improvement throughout the season and a leap in Year 2 is very much on the table.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.